Match Info

Premiership Rugby - Round 1

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Ashton Gate Stadium (Bristol)

Referee: Woodthorpe A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	FloSports app, TNT Sports 1, TNT Sports Ultimate


	Bristol Rugby		Leicester Tigers

	1	X	2
	1.33	23	3.25
	1.39	27	3
	1.41	23	3.2	Watch
	1.35	22	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.42)	23.75 ↑ (20.67)	3.21 ↑ (2.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 59.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bristol Rugby
67.4%

Draw
3.9%

Leicester Tigers
28.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.5%

4.4%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bristol Rugby has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Leicester Tigers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Bristol Rugby - Leicester Tigers Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Bristol will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Leicester Tigers will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -11.5 - Bristol (2.19) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bristol Rugby will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Bristol (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Leicester Tigers (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 34:26

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Woolmore J.	1. Smith N.
2. Oghre G.	2. Blamire J.
3. Kloska G.	3. Heyes J.
4. Dun J.	4. Henderson C.
5. Batley J.	5. Thompson J.
6. Luatua S.	6. Liebenberg H.
7. Harding F.	7. Ilione E.
8. Grondona B.	8. Cracknell O.
9. Randall H.	9. van Poortvliet J.
10. MacGinty A.	10. Bailey O.
11. Ibitoye G.	11. Hassell-Collins O.
12. Janse van Rensburg B.	12. Woodward J.
13. Jenkins J.	13. Wand W.
14. Rees-Zammit L.	14. Radwan A.
15. Jordan T.	15. Steward F.
Substitutes
. Bill	. Haffar T.
. Carrington J.	. Kata S.
. Chawatama L.	. Moro J.
. Ravouvou K.	. Searle B.
16. Thacker H.	. Whiteley T.
17. Grahamslaw S.	16. Clare C.
19. Owen J.	18. Hurd W.
21. Marmion K.	19. Manz T.
Coaches
. Lam P.	. Parling G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (17 - 17)
4', MacGinty A. (Penalty Goal),
5', van Poortvliet J. (Try),
6', Bailey O. (Conversion Goal),
12', MacGinty A. ↓, Carrington J. ↑,
13', Radwan A. (Try),
14', Bailey O. (Missed Conversion),
16', Harding F. (Try),
17', Jordan T. (Conversion Goal),
26', Bailey O. (Missed Penalty),
29', Liebenberg H. ↓, Moro J. ↑,
29', Radwan A. (Try),
29', Woodward J. (Missed Conversion),
32', Randall H. ↓, Marmion K. ↑,
33', Ibitoye G. (Try),
34', Jordan T. (Conversion Goal),
39', Blamire J. ↓, Clare C. ↑,
2nd Half (25 - 7)
41', Clare C. ↓, Blamire J. ↑,
42', Jordan T. (Penalty Goal),
49', Grondona B. ↓, Bill ↑,
49', Woodward J. ↓, Kata S. ↑,
50', Oghre G. (Try),
51', Jordan T. (Conversion Goal),
52', Ibitoye G. ↓, Ravouvou K. ↑,
56', Blamire J. ↓, Clare C. ↑,
56', Smith N. ↓, Haffar T. ↑,
57', Bailey O. (Try),
58', Bailey O. (Conversion Goal),
58', Kloska G. ↓, Chawatama L. ↑,
60', Luatua S. ↓, Owen J. ↑,
62', Carrington J. (Try),
63', Jordan T. (Missed Conversion),
63', Heyes J. ↓, Hurd W. ↑,
63', van Poortvliet J. ↓, Whiteley T. ↑,
64', Bailey O. ↓, Searle B. ↑,
69', Harding F. ↓, Thacker H. ↑,
76', Woolmore J. ↓, Grahamslaw S. ↑,
78', Jordan T. (Penalty Goal),
79', Rees-Zammit L. (Try),
80', Jordan T. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bristol won 3.

In this match, Bristol is seen as the favorite.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Bristol won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 419:410. (average 26.2:25.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Bristol won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 210:141. (average 26.3:17.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bristol Rugby
English Premiership Rugby Cup
19.09.25	Gloucester - Bristol Rugby	24:40 ✺
13.09.25	Sale Sharks - Bristol Rugby	24:15 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
06.06.25	Bath - Bristol Rugby	34:20 ✺
31.05.25	Bristol Rugby - Harlequins	52:26 ✺
16.05.25	Sale Sharks - Bristol Rugby	41:27 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 WLLWL
- Leicester Tigers
English Premiership Rugby Cup
19.09.25	Harlequins - Leicester Tigers	17:25 ✺
13.09.25	Leicester Tigers - Saracens	20:7 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
14.06.25	Bath - Leicester Tigers	23:21 ✺
07.06.25	Leicester Tigers - Sale Sharks	21:16 ✺
31.05.25	Leicester Tigers - Newcastle Red Bulls	42:20 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premiership Rugby
20.04.25	Bristol Rugby - Leicester Tigers	19:36
21.12.24	Leicester Tigers - Bristol Rugby	24:54
27.04.24	Leicester Tigers - Bristol Rugby	19:21
13.10.23	Bristol Rugby - Leicester Tigers	25:14
25.03.23	Leicester Tigers - Bristol Rugby	46:24
03.12.22	Bristol Rugby - Leicester Tigers	26:26
30.04.22	Leicester Tigers - Bristol Rugby	56:26

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