Match Info

European Rugby Champions Cup - Round 4

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Scotstoun Stadium (Glasgow)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Rugby, SuperSport Variety 1
Asia	Premier Sports Rugby Asia
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Malta	TSN Malta 1
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
South-africa	SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	FloRugby.com, FloSports app, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player


	Glasgow Warriors		Saracens

	1	X	2
	1.4	23	3.1
	1.37	24	3.15
	1.20	23.14	4.87	Watch
	1.4	23	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↑ (1.3)	23.29 ↓ (23.33)	3.53 ↓ (3.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 51.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Glasgow Warriors
69.5%

Draw
4%

Saracens
26.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.9%

25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

74.9%

3.8%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Glasgow Warriors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Saracens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Glasgow Warriors than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Glasgow Warriors, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saracens than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Glasgow Warriors - Saracens Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Glasgow Warriors will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Glasgow Warriors (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:23

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Schickerling P.	1. Mawi E.
2. Hiddleston G.	2. George J.
3. Fagerson Z.	3. Street M.
4. Craig A.	4. Itoje M. (C)
5. Cummings S.	5. Tizard H.
6. Fagerson M.	6. McFarland T.
7. Darge R.	7. Gonzalez J.
8. Dempsey J.	8. Earl B.
9. Horne G.	9. van Zyl I.
10. Lancaster D.	10. Burke F.
11. Smith O.	11. Segun R.
12. Tuipulotu S.	12. Farrell O.
13. Jones H.	13. Cinti L.
14. Steyn K. (C)	14. Malins M.
15. Rowe K.	15. Daly E.
Substitutes
16. Stephen S.	16. Hadfield J.
17. Sutherland R.	17. Carre R.
18. Talakai S.	18. Riccioni M.
19. Williamson M.	19. Christie A.
20. Brown G.	20. Willis T.
21. Ferrie E.	21. Bracken C.
22. McDowall S.	22. Hartley O.
23. Afshar B.	23. Caluori N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (21 - 3)
9', Smith O. (Try),
10', Horne G. (Conversion Goal),
14', Farrell O. (Penalty Goal),
22', Gonzalez J. 🟨,
29', Steyn K. (Try),
30', Horne G. (Conversion Goal),
31', Horne G. (Try),
32', Horne G. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (7 - 0)
54', Rowe K. 🟨,
76', Caluori N. 🟨,
80+3', Stephen S. (Try),
80+4', Lancaster D. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Glasgow Warriors has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Saracens has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Glasgow Warriors may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Glasgow Warriors is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Glasgow Warriors will win today's game, with odds of 1.41.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Glasgow Warriors won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 62:145. (average 15.5:36.3).

Including home match between the teams, Glasgow Warriors won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:13.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Glasgow Warriors
European Rugby Champions Cup
10.01.26	Clermont - Glasgow Warriors	21:33 ✺
United Rugby Championship
03.01.26	Glasgow Warriors - Zebre	47:10 ✺
27.12.25	Edinburgh - Glasgow Warriors	3:21 ✺
20.12.25	Glasgow Warriors - Edinburgh	24:12 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
13.12.25	Glasgow Warriors - Toulouse	28:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WWWWW
- Saracens FC
European Rugby Champions Cup
11.01.26	Saracens - Toulouse	20:14 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
04.01.26	Leicester Tigers - Saracens	36:28 ✺
27.12.25	Gloucester - Saracens	21:30 ✺
20.12.25	Saracens - Exeter Chiefs	24:30 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
13.12.25	Sharks - Saracens	28:23 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

European Rugby Champions Cup
30.03.19	Saracens - Glasgow Warriors	56:27
19.01.19	Saracens - Glasgow Warriors	38:19
14.10.18	Glasgow Warriors - Saracens	3:13
02.04.17	Saracens - Glasgow Warriors	38:13

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