Match Info

Premiership Rugby - Round 8

Date: 27 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Kingsholm Stadium (Gloucester)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	Premier Sports Rugby Asia
Australia	Stan Sport
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 1, Oneplay
Malta	TSN Malta 7
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ, Sky Sport 1
Peru	Disney+
Slovakia	Voyo
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, FloRugby.com, TNT Sports 1, TNT Sports Ultimate
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Gloucester		Saracens

	1	X	2
	3.5	23	1.33
	2.9	29	1.4
	3.41	22.41	1.36	Watch
	3.4	23	1.33
	3.62	23	1.31	Watch
	3.5	26	1.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.39 ↑ (2.48)	24.4 ↑ (20.08)	1.34 ↓ (1.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 59.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-10)

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gloucester
27.3%

Draw
3.8%

Saracens
68.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

4.6%

57.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.5%

5.1%

64.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gloucester has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gloucester's form might have worsened.

Saracens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Saracens's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gloucester than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gloucester, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saracens than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Gloucester - Saracens Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Saracens will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 25:35

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rapava-Ruskin V.	1. Carre R.
2. Innard J.	2. Dan T.
3. Fasogbon A.	3. Street M.
4. Thomas F.	4. Isiekwe N.
5. Clark A.	5. Tizard H.
6. Venter J.	6. McFarland T.
7. Ludlow L.	7. Christie A.
8. Clement J.	8. Willis T.
9. Williams T. (C)	9. van Zyl I. (C)
10. Byrne R.	10. Farrell O.
11. Thorley O.	11. Malins M.
12. Atkinson S.	12. Tompkins N.
13. Butler W.	13. Cinti L.
14. Loader B.	14. Segun R.
15. Atkinson C.	15. Daly E.
Substitutes
16. Knowles G.	16. George J.
17. Knight C.	17. Mawi E.
18. Ford-Robinson J.	18. Tuimauga T.
19. Jordan C.	19. Gonzalez J.
20. Taylor H.	20. Earl B.
21. Austin M.	21. Bracken C.
22. Knight W.	22. Burke F.
23. Hathaway J.	23. Hartley O.
Coaches
. Skivington G.	. McCall M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (14 - 17)
3', Butler W. ↓, Knight W. ↑,
8', Dan T. (Try),
8', Farrell O. (Conversion Goal),
15', Loader B. ↓, Hathaway J. ↑,
19', Thomas F. (Try),
20', Byrne R. (Conversion Goal),
23', McFarland T. (Try),
23', Farrell O. (Conversion Goal),
32', Farrell O. (Penalty Goal),
39', Clark A. (Try),
40', Byrne R. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (7 - 13)
45', McFarland T. (Try),
46', Farrell O. (Missed Conversion),
49', Carre R. ↓, Mawi E. ↑,
49', Dan T. ↓, George J. ↑,
51', van Zyl I. (Try),
52', Farrell O. (Missed Conversion),
54', Venter J. ↓, Taylor H. ↑,
55', Christie A. ↓, Earl B. ↑,
55', Fasogbon A. ↓, Ford-Robinson J. ↑,
55', Tompkins N. ↓, Burke F. ↑,
58', Taylor H. ↓, Jordan C. ↑,
59', McFarland T. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
66', van Zyl I. ↓, Bracken C. ↑,
67', Rapava-Ruskin V. ↓, Knight C. ↑,
67', Farrell O. (Penalty Goal),
67', Street M. ↓, Tuimauga T. ↑,
67', Farrell O. ↓, Hartley O. ↑,
73', Williams T. ↓, Austin M. ↑,
76', Innard J. ↓, Knowles G. ↑,
80+2', Knight W. (Try),
80+2', Byrne R. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 9 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ European Rugby Champions Cup).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gloucester won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Gloucester may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Saracens has had a series of home games.

In this match, Saracens is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gloucester won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 439:610. (average 22:30.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Gloucester won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 210:214. (average 23.3:23.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gloucester Rugby
English Premiership Rugby
19.12.25	Leicester Tigers - Gloucester	45:14 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
13.12.25	Munster - Gloucester	31:3 ✺
07.12.25	Gloucester - Castres	34:14 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
29.11.25	Gloucester - Harlequins	26:15 ✺
English Premiership Rugby Cup
14.11.25	Gloucester - Bath	19:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LLWWW
- Saracens FC
English Premiership Rugby
20.12.25	Saracens - Exeter Chiefs	24:30 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
13.12.25	Sharks - Saracens	28:23 ✺
06.12.25	Saracens - Clermont	47:10 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
30.11.25	Saracens - Bath	29:36 ✺
English Premiership Rugby Cup
22.11.25	Saracens - Newcastle Red Bulls	43:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

English Premiership Rugby
19.04.25	Saracens - Gloucester	36:14
21.09.24	Gloucester - Saracens	26:35
20.04.24	Saracens - Gloucester	46:24
27.10.23	Gloucester - Saracens	3:24
English Premiership Rugby Cup
16.09.23	Saracens - Gloucester	20:29
English Premiership Rugby
06.01.23	Gloucester - Saracens	16:19
24.09.22	Saracens - Gloucester	41:39

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