Match Info

Top 14 - Round 26

Date: 6 June 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade de Gerland (Lyon)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	Canal+ Live 6
United-kingdom	FloSports app


	Lyon		Montpellier

	1	X	2
	2.88	21	1.44
	2.85	24	1.43
	2.8	23	1.4
	2.94	19	1.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.87 ↓ (3.1)	21.75 ↓ (22.5)	1.42 ↑ (1.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 58.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lyon
31.7%

Draw
4.2%

Montpellier
64.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

29.6%

4.1%

66.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.6%

3.8%

71.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lyon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Montpellier has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lyon than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Montpellier could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lyon - Montpellier Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 26:33

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rey J.	1. Forletta E.
2. Chat C.	2. Tolofua C.
3. Aptsiauri I.	3. Hounkpatin W.
4. William T.	4. Verhaeghe F.
5. Botha A.	5. Duguid T.
6. Cretin D.	6. Camara Y.
7. Allen L.	7. Nouchi L. (C)
8. Simmonds S. (C)	8. Vunipola V.
9. Cassang C.	9. Price A.
10. Meliande M.	10. Coly L.
11. Wainiqolo J.	11. Banks T.
12. Millet T.	12. Cadot A.
13. Maraku J.	13. Vincent A.
14. Dumortier E.	14. Ngandebe G.
15. Tchaptchet A.	15. Hogg S.
Substitutes
16. Marchand G.	16. Akrab L.
17. Moukoro T.	17. Erdocio B.
18. Lambey F.	18. Beard A.
19. Shvangiradze B.	19. Masibaka A.
20. Gonzalez E.	20. Bernadet A.
21. Jackson D. P.	21. Taofifenua D.
22. Deliance A.	22. Darmon T.
23. Gomes Sa C.	23. Haouas M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (22 - 16)
10', Cassang C. (Try),
14', Maraku J. (Try),
15', Meliande M. (Conversion Goal),
18', Ngandebe G. (Try),
18', Coly L. (Conversion Goal),
21', Meliande M. (Penalty Goal),
21', Camara Y. 🟥,
27', Coly L. (Penalty Goal),
32', Coly L. (Penalty Goal),
39', Coly L. (Penalty Goal),
40+2', Cassang C. (Try),
40+2', Meliande M. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (3 - 12)
50', Meliande M. (Penalty Goal),
54', Tolofua C. (Try),
62', Darmon T. (Try),
62', Coly L. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lyon won 3.

Recent performances by Lyon have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Montpellier is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Recently, Montpellier has had a series of home games.

In this match, Montpellier is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lyon won 13 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 478:478. (average 23.9:23.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Lyon won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 274:158. (average 30.4:17.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
7	Montpellier	6	3	0	3	163:122	14
8	Lyon	6	3	0	3	193:202	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lyon OU
French Top 14
30.05.26	Toulouse - Lyon	39:31 ✺
16.05.26	Lyon - Aviron Bayonnais	42:35 ✺
09.05.26	Stade Français - Lyon	59:17 ✺
25.04.26	Lyon - Castres	26:21 ✺
18.04.26	Clermont - Lyon	41:23 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LWLWL
- Montpellier Hérault RC
French Top 14
30.05.26	Montpellier - Section Paloise	26:18 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
22.05.26	Montpellier - Ulster	59:26 ✺
French Top 14
16.05.26	Castres - Montpellier	33:36 ✺
09.05.26	Montpellier - Montauban	59:7 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
03.05.26	Montpellier - Newport Gwent Dragons	18:12 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
18.10.25	Montpellier - Lyon	35:13
19.04.25	Lyon - Montpellier	32:23
07.09.24	Montpellier - Lyon	22:26
01.06.24	Montpellier - Lyon	41:19
30.12.23	Lyon - Montpellier	20:18
18.02.23	Lyon - Montpellier	31:21
15.10.22	Montpellier - Lyon	26:33

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