Match Info

Top 14 - Round 24

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Pierre-Fabre (Castres)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 2, CANAL+ Sport
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports Rugby


	Castres		Montpellier

	1	X	2
	1.91	19	1.91
	2	23	1.83
	1.87	23	1.99
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↑ (1.8)	21.67 ↑ (18)	1.91 ↓ (2.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 52.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Castres
47.7%

Draw
4.2%

Montpellier
48.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

51%

5.1%

43.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.8%

5.7%

39.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castres has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castres than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Castres, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Montpellier, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Castres - Montpellier Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:25

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Walcker Q.	1. Erdocio B.
2. Colonna P.	2. Uelese J.
3. Collier W.	3. Haouas M.
4. Ducat G.	4. Verhaeghe F.
5. Staniforth T.	5. Duguid T.
6. Delaporte B. (C)	6. Camara Y.
7. Ardron T.	7. Becognee A.
8. Vanverberghe F.	8. Nouchi L. (C)
9. Fernandez J.	9. Price A.
10. Popelin P.	10. Miotti H.
11. Baget R.	11. Taofifenua D.
12. Cocagi A.	12. Piccardo J.
13. Goodhue J.	13. Cadot A.
14. Ambadiang C.	14. Ngandebe G.
15. Chabouni T.	15. Banks T.
Substitutes
16. Durand T.	16. Tolofua C.
17. Galisson L.	17. Forletta E.
18. Maravat G.	18. Beard A.
19. Papalii A.	19. Diaby M.
20. Cope B.	20. Bernadet A.
21. Doubrere G.	21. Vincent T.
22. Palis G.	22. Vincent A.
23. Chilachava L.	23. Welsch V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (19 - 19)
6', Cadot A. (Try),
7', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
19', Cadot A. (Try),
29', Baget R. (Try),
29', Popelin P. (Conversion Goal),
35', Ambadiang C. (Try),
35', Popelin P. (Conversion Goal),
39', Banks T. (Try),
39', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
40', Chabouni T. (Try),
2nd Half (14 - 17)
42', Camara Y. (Try),
43', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
55', Taofifenua D. (Try),
56', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
59', Durand T. (Try),
60', Popelin P. (Conversion Goal),
64', Miotti H. (Penalty Goal),
71', Camara Y. 🟨,
73', Galisson L. (Try),
74', Popelin P. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Castres won 2.

Castres is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Montpellier is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Montpellier may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Montpellier has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Castres won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 488:452. (average 24.4:22.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Castres won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 285:227. (average 25.9:20.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
7	Montpellier	6	3	0	3	163:122	14
13	Castres Olympique	6	2	0	4	126:153	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Castres Olympique
French Top 14
09.05.26	Section Paloise - Castres	27:15 ✺
25.04.26	Lyon - Castres	26:21 ✺
18.04.26	Castres - Toulouse	25:42 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
03.04.26	Northampton Saints - Castres	49:41 ✺
French Top 14
28.03.26	Castres - Montauban	49:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LLLLW
- Montpellier Hérault RC
French Top 14
09.05.26	Montpellier - Montauban	59:7 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
03.05.26	Montpellier - Newport Gwent Dragons	18:12 ✺
French Top 14
25.04.26	Bordeaux Bègles - Montpellier	21:23 ✺
18.04.26	Montpellier - Perpignan	42:31 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
11.04.26	Montpellier - Connacht	45:22 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
20.12.25	Montpellier - Castres	33:31
01.03.25	Montpellier - Castres	21:17
02.11.24	Castres - Montpellier	30:26
11.05.24	Castres - Montpellier	27:26
23.12.23	Montpellier - Castres	30:21
15.04.23	Montpellier - Castres	19:28
08.10.22	Castres - Montpellier	26:13

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