Match Info

Top 14 - Round 22

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade de Gerland (Lyon)


	Lyon		Castres

	1	X	2
	1.33	26	3.4
	1.33	30	3.25
	1.34	29.43	3.5	Watch
	1.33	26	3.25
	1.31	23	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↑ (1.29)	26.89 ↑ (21.6)	3.37 ↓ (4.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 60.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-9)

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lyon
69.3%

Draw
3.4%

Castres
27.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

73%

4.4%

22.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lyon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Castres has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Lyon - Castres Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Lyon will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 35:26

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rey J.	1. Galisson L.
2. Marchand G.	2. Durand T.
3. Aptsiauri I.	3. Corato N.
4. Guillard M.	4. Ducat G.
5. Roux J.	5. Staniforth T.
6. Deliance A.	6. Babillot M. (C)
7. William T.	7. Delaporte B.
8. Simmonds S. (C)	8. Ramototabua V.
9. Cassang C.	9. Arata S.
10. Berdeu L.	10. Herve E.
11. Wainiqolo J.	11. Vargas A.
12. Millet T.	12. Cocagi A.
13. Maraku J.	13. Goodhue J.
14. Ioane M.	14. Ambadiang C.
15. Tchaptchet A.	15. Palis G.
Substitutes
16. Sarragallet M.	16. Colonna P.
17. Moukoro T.	17. Walcker Q.
18. Cretin D.	18. Vanverberghe F.
19. Allen L.	19. Maravat G.
20. Gonzalez E.	20. Papalii A.
21. Jackson D. P.	21. Fernandez J.
22. Parisien A.	22. Chabouni T.
23. Marceline T.	23. Chilachava L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (5 - 15)
16', Goodhue J. (Try),
16', Herve E. (Conversion Goal),
19', Deliance A. 🟨,
24', Ramototabua V. 🟨,
26', Cassang C. (Try),
29', Durand T. (Try),
40+1', Herve E. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (21 - 6)
55', Moukoro T. (Try),
56', Berdeu L. (Conversion Goal),
59', Herve E. (Penalty Goal),
64', Delaporte B. 🟨,
65', Guillard M. (Try),
66', Berdeu L. (Conversion Goal),
70', Fernandez J. (Penalty Goal),
72', Cretin D. (Try),
72', Jackson D. P. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 12 and 10)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lyon won 2.

Castres's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Lyon is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Lyon will win today's game, with odds of 1.3.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lyon won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 453:489. (average 22.7:24.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Lyon won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 237:191. (average 26.3:21.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
6	Lyon	5	3	0	2	177:174	14
12	Castres Olympique	5	2	0	3	100:118	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lyon OU
French Top 14
18.04.26	Clermont - Lyon	41:23 ✺
28.03.26	Lyon - Bordeaux Bègles	17:21 ✺
21.03.26	Perpignan - Lyon	28:32 ✺
28.02.26	Lyon - Toulon	13:13 ✺
14.02.26	Lyon - Montauban	73:12 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LLWTW
- Castres Olympique
French Top 14
18.04.26	Castres - Toulouse	25:42 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
03.04.26	Northampton Saints - Castres	49:41 ✺
French Top 14
28.03.26	Castres - Montauban	49:17 ✺
21.03.26	Racing Métro - Castres	52:21 ✺
28.02.26	Castres - La Rochelle	26:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
27.12.25	Castres - Lyon	36:22
22.02.25	Castres - Lyon	30:25
28.09.24	Lyon - Castres	40:38
09.03.24	Lyon - Castres	34:19
02.12.23	Castres - Lyon	29:14
04.03.23	Castres - Lyon	27:22
05.11.22	Lyon - Castres	26:20

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