Match Info

Top 14 - Round 25

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Ernest-Wallon (Toulouse)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	FloSports app


	Toulouse		Lyon

	1	X	2
	1	51	21
	1	45	14
				Watch
	1.01	27	18.4
	1	45	24
Avarage Now (Initially)	1 ↓ (1.01)	42 ↓ (47.5)	19.35 ↓ (22.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 72.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-33)

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toulouse
93%

Draw
2.2%

Lyon
4.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

93.8%

4.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Lyon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Toulouse - Lyon Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Toulouse will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 53:20

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Neti R.	1. Kaabeche H.
2. Mauvaka P.	2. Marchand G. (C)
3. Merkler J.	3. Gomes Sa C.
4. Brennan J.	4. Sanson B.
5. Meafou E.	5. William T.
6. Cros F.	6. Shvangiradze B.
7. Willis J. (C)	7. Allen L.
8. Roumat A.	8. Baret L.
9. Saito N.	9. Gonzalez E.
10. Ntamack R.	10. Meliande M.
11. Lebel M.	11. Wainiqolo J.
12. Chocobares S.	12. Millet T.
13. Barassi P.	13. Maraku J.
14. Pouzelgues C.	14. Ioane M.
15. Ramos T.	15. Tchaptchet A.
Substitutes
16. Marchand J.	16. Chat C.
17. Ainuu D.	17. Rey J.
18. Verge C.	18. Lambey F.
19. Elias E.	19. Gouzou M.
20. Ntamack T.	20. Berdeu L.
21. Capuozzo A.	21. Regard T.
22. Gourgues K.	22. Mathiron A.
23. Colombe Reazel G.	23. Marceline T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (24 - 14)
3', Lebel M. (Try),
11', Sanson B. (Try),
11', Meliande M. (Conversion Goal),
15', Gonzalez E. (Try),
15', Meliande M. (Conversion Goal),
26', Shvangiradze B. 🟨,
27', Merkler J. (Try),
27', Ramos T. (Conversion Goal),
32', Mauvaka P. (Try),
32', Ramos T. (Conversion Goal),
36', Barassi P. (Try),
2nd Half (15 - 17)
47', Ramos T. (Penalty Goal),
51', Maraku J. (Try),
52', Meliande M. (Conversion Goal),
64', Meliande M. (Penalty Goal),
65', Berdeu L. 🟨,
66', Ainuu D. (Try),
67', Ramos T. (Conversion Goal),
75', Marchand J. (Try),
80+1', Wainiqolo J. (Try),
80+2', Berdeu L. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 3.

In recent matches, Toulouse has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Recently, Toulouse has had a series of away games.

In this match, Toulouse is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 526:412. (average 26.3:20.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Toulouse won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 308:166. (average 34.2:18.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
1	Stade Toulousain	6	5	0	1	197:124	24
8	Lyon	6	3	0	3	193:202	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Toulousain
French Top 14
17.05.26	La Rochelle - Toulouse	38:10 ✺
09.05.26	Toulon - Toulouse	27:51 ✺
26.04.26	Toulouse - Clermont	24:27 ✺
18.04.26	Castres - Toulouse	25:42 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
12.04.26	Bordeaux Bègles - Toulouse	30:15 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LWLWL
- Lyon OU
French Top 14
16.05.26	Lyon - Aviron Bayonnais	42:35 ✺
09.05.26	Stade Français - Lyon	59:17 ✺
25.04.26	Lyon - Castres	26:21 ✺
18.04.26	Clermont - Lyon	41:23 ✺
28.03.26	Lyon - Bordeaux Bègles	17:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
20.12.25	Lyon - Toulouse	19:41
01.06.25	Toulouse - Lyon	43:3
22.12.24	Lyon - Toulouse	17:17
08.06.24	Lyon - Toulouse	40:28
06.01.24	Toulouse - Lyon	45:0
16.04.23	Toulouse - Lyon	36:31
27.11.22	Lyon - Toulouse	21:14

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