Match Info

Bunnings NPC

Date: 5 September 2025, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Forsyth Barr Stadium (Dunedin) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	17:10	Stan Sport
United Kingdom	08:10	Sky Go


	Otago		Northland

	1	X	2
	1.3	26	3.6
	1.29	27	3.55
	1.40	22.78	3.18	Watch
	1.36	21	3
	1.31	28	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.36)	24.96 ↑ (22)	3.38 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 55.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-9)

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Otago
69.1%

Draw
3.7%

Northland
27.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

67.6%

4.2%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.4%

3.9%

26.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Otago has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Northland has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Otago than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Northland than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Otago - Northland Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Otago (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Otago will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 33:24

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (7 - 7)
2nd Half (22 - 3)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Otago won 4.

Otago is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Northland has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Otago is the team to beat.

We predict that Otago will win today's game, with odds of 1.37.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Otago won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 342:315. (average 28.5:26.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Otago won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 162:145. (average 27:24.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Otago
New Zealand NPC
30.08.25	Tasman - Otago	27:31 ✺
23.08.25	Otago - Counties Manukau	33:19 ✺
16.08.25	Wellington - Otago	41:46 ✺
10.08.25	Otago - Hawkes Bay	21:27 ✺
02.08.25	Southland - Otago	15:24 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.1 WWWLW
- Northland
New Zealand NPC
30.08.25	Northland - Hawkes Bay	27:21 ✺
23.08.25	Auckland - Northland	24:43 ✺
15.08.25	Northland - Tasman	14:28 ✺
08.08.25	Northland - Southland	22:17 ✺
02.08.25	Taranaki - Northland	23:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

New Zealand NPC
04.10.24	Northland - Otago	28:31
10.09.23	Otago - Northland	30:15
15.10.21	Northland - Otago	13:24
20.11.20	Otago - Northland	19:32
23.10.20	Otago - Northland	30:7
12.10.19	Northland - Otago	40:10
07.09.18	Otago - Northland	27:23

Otago - Northland: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide