Match Info

Rugby Europe Championship - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 8 March 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Europe	Rugby Europe
Portugal	Sport TV6
United-kingdom	FloSports app
World	RugbyPass TV


	Portugal		Spain

	1	X	2
	1.64	24	2.28
	1.74	23.33	2.23
	1.67	23	2.25
	1.64	20	2.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.42)	22.58 ↑ (20.24)	2.27 ↓ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 56.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Portugal
55.2%

Draw
4.1%

Spain
40.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.1%

4.6%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Portugal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Portugal's form might have worsened.

Spain has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Spain's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Portugal - Spain Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Portugal will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:27

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (13 - 0)
15', (Penalty Goal),
28', (Try),
28', (Conversion Goal),
40', (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (13 - 7)
55', (Try),
57', (Conversion Goal),
60', (Penalty Goal),
68', (Try),
69', (Conversion Goal),
71', (Penalty Goal),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Portugal won 3.

Spain may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Portugal is a strong favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Portugal won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 169:155. (average 28.2:25.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Portugal rugby
Rugby Europe Championship
22.02.26	Portugal - Romania	44:7 ✺
14.02.26	Germany - Portugal	12:68 ✺
Friendly International Rugby Union
22.11.25	Portugal - Canada	33:27 ✺
15.11.25	Portugal - Hong Kong	58:12 ✺
08.11.25	Portugal - Uruguay	8:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WWWWL
- Spain rugby
Rugby Europe Championship
21.02.26	Georgia - Spain	42:30 ✺
14.02.26	Spain - Switzerland	53:14
07.02.26	Netherlands - Spain	33:51 ✺
Friendly International Rugby Union
22.11.25	Spain - Fiji	33:40 ✺
15.11.25	Spain - England A	25:29 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 38.4 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Rugby Europe Championship
01.03.25	Portugal - Spain	31:42
03.03.24	Portugal - Spain	33:30
04.03.23	Portugal - Spain	27:10
13.03.22	Spain - Portugal	33:28
27.03.21	Portugal - Spain	38:21
Sevens World Series USA
26.01.14	Spain - Portugal	19:12

Portugal - Spain: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide