Match Info

NPC - Round 6

Date: 3 September 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Yarrow Stadium (New Plymouth) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	17:10	Stan Sport
International	07:10	RugbyPass TV


	Taranaki		Auckland

	1	X	2
	1.32	26	3.4
	1.29	21	3.5	Watch
	1.26	24	3.25
	1.3	23	3.76
	1.3	27	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.45)	24.2 ↓ (29)	3.49 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 57.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Taranaki
70.2%

Draw
3.8%

Auckland
26%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

64.2%

3.2%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.1%

3.3%

33.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Taranaki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Taranaki's performance.

Auckland has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Auckland might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Taranaki than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Taranaki that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Auckland than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Auckland could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Taranaki - Auckland Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 30:30

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (14 - 7)
2nd Half (14 - 5)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Taranaki won 2.

Taranaki has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Auckland has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Taranaki is a strong favorite.

We predict that Taranaki will win today's game, with odds of 1.31.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Taranaki won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 398:403. (average 30.6:31).

Including home matches between the teams, Taranaki won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 219:246. (average 27.4:30.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Taranaki
New Zealand NPC
28.08.26	Taranaki - Canterbury	40:26 ✺
22.08.26	Bay of Plenty - Taranaki	28:24 ✺
14.08.26	Northland - Taranaki	42:0 ✺
07.08.26	Taranaki - Waikato	32:38 ✺
31.07.26	Counties Manukau - Taranaki	5:20 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLLLW
- Auckland Rugby
New Zealand NPC
28.08.26	Auckland - Bay of Plenty	19:22 ✺
22.08.26	North Harbour - Auckland	27:19 ✺
15.08.26	Auckland - Hawkes Bay	31:44 ✺
07.08.26	Auckland - Wellington	34:31 ✺
01.08.26	Canterbury - Auckland	38:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

New Zealand NPC
16.08.25	Auckland - Taranaki	8:50
23.09.23	Taranaki - Auckland	18:16
30.09.22	Auckland - Taranaki	38:24
09.10.20	Taranaki - Auckland	28:29
11.10.19	Taranaki - Auckland	11:35
22.09.18	Taranaki - Auckland	30:31
08.09.17	Auckland - Taranaki	38:49

Taranaki - Auckland: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide