Match Info

Copa Chile - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas (Chillán)


	Ñublense		Deportes Puerto Montt

	1	X	2
	1.50	4.20	5.00	Watch
	1.53	3.70	5.25
	1.60	3.55	4.70	Watch
	1.53	4.05	6.13
	1.64	3.84	4.99	Watch
	1.51	3.95	5.65
	1.55	4.34	5.16	Watch
	1.52	3.75	5.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.52)	3.92 ↑ (3.7)	5.26 ↓ (5.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ñublense
59.2%

Draw
23.4%

Deportes Puerto Montt
17.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60%

24.6%

15.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.4%

24%

15%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ñublense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Deportes Puerto Montt has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ñublense than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Puerto Montt than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Ñublense - Deportes Puerto Montt Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Perez N. (G) 5. Campos Mosqueira F. 6. Calderon P. 15. Valencia S. 7. Ovelar F. 21. Reyes L. (C) 35. Mansilla C. 11. Molina Canto L. 14. Campusano J. 26. Calderon E. 20. Jeraldino I.	13. Ureta L. (G) 2. Morales A. 38. Naguil Y. 4. Riveros M. (C) 15. Egana K. 23. Castillo G. 27. Mancilla D. 6. Diaz D. 16. Flores J. 18. Sabella A. 8. Paredes R.
Substitutes
18. Cespedes D. 8. Graciani G. 27. Guzman V. 25. Munoz H. (G) 31. Poblete J. 9. Rami F. 3. Salomon C. 16. Sanhueza D. 19. Tapia I.	36. Ascui E. (G) 14. Cardenas J. 11. Castro R. 21. Espinoza F. 22. Jaime J. 26. Mancilla N. 31. Nanning C. 17. Nieto B. 9. Vazquez L.
Coaches
Ribera J.	Mancilla E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Calderon E. ⚽, Molina Canto L. (A),
18', Paredes R. 🟨,
24', Reyes L. 🟨,
35', 1 - 1, Paredes R. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Mancilla D. ↓, Nieto B. ↑,
46', Mansilla C. ↓, Cespedes D. ↑,
46', Sabella A. 🟨,
52', 2 - 1, Calderon E. ⚽,
55', Ovelar F. ↓, Tapia I. ↑,
55', Campos Mosqueira F. ↓, Sanhueza D. ↑,
56', Jeraldino I. ↓, Graciani G. ↑,
60', Sabella A. ↓, Espinoza F. ↑,
60', Egana K. ↓, Mancilla N. ↑,
60', Diaz D. ↓, Jaime J. ↑,
65', Naguil Y. ↓, Nanning C. ↑,
69', Riveros M. 🟨,
80', Reyes L. ↓, Rami F. ↑,
88', Paredes R. 🟨,
89', Tapia I. 🟨,
90+6', Sanhueza D. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 0-2.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ñublense won 2.

Ñublense is on a difficult losing run (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Puerto Montt has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

In this matchup, Ñublense is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 14 head-to-head meetings, Ñublense has recorded 7 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 22:14 (averaging 1.6:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ñublense against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 16:4 goals (averaging 2:0.5 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Ñublense
Chilean Cup
22.09.26	Deportes Puerto Montt - Ñublense	2:0 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
12.09.26	Ñublense - Everton de Viña	1:3 ✺
06.09.26	Deportes La Serena - Ñublense	2:1 ✺
02.09.26	Deportes Limache - Ñublense	2:0 ✺
29.08.26	Ñublense - Deportes Concepción	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Deportes Puerto Montt
Chilean Cup
22.09.26	Deportes Puerto Montt - Ñublense	2:0 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
13.09.26	Deportes Magallanes - Deportes Puerto Montt	2:0 ✺
08.09.26	Deportes Puerto Montt - Rangers de Talca	1:2 ✺
04.09.26	Deportes Puerto Montt - Curicó Unido	2:0 ✺
30.08.26	Deportes Temuco - Deportes Puerto Montt	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Cup
22.09.26	Deportes Puerto Montt - Ñublense	2:0
29.10.24	Ñublense - Deportes Puerto Montt	2:1 penalties
23.10.24	Deportes Puerto Montt - Ñublense	1:1
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
20.11.20	Deportes Puerto Montt - Ñublense	3:2
23.09.20	Ñublense - Deportes Puerto Montt	2:0
11.01.20	Ñublense - Deportes Puerto Montt	2:1
18.10.19	Ñublense - Deportes Puerto Montt	2:0

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