Match Info

Liga de Primera - Round 21

Date: 29 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas (Chillán)

Referee: Araos M. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Ñublense		Deportes Concepción

	1	X	2
	2.10	2.82	3.70	Watch
	2.20	3.00	3.50
	2.10	3.10	3.70	Watch
	2.25	3.14	3.74
	2.17	3.03	3.65	Watch
	2.15	3.10	3.75
	2.24	2.99	3.85	Watch
	2.16	2.85	3.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↑ (2.07)	3 ↓ (3.34)	3.67 ↑ (3.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ñublense
43.2%

Draw
31.2%

Deportes Concepción
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

28%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.2%

26.8%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ñublense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Deportes Concepción has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ñublense than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Concepción than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Ñublense - Deportes Concepción Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Perez N. (G) 6. Calderon P. 4. Bosso Torres O. 15. Valencia S. 16. Sanhueza D. 10. Plaza M. 21. Reyes L. (C) 28. Rivera M. 14. Campusano J. 8. Graciani G. 11. Molina Canto L.	25. Araya N. (G) 4. Caceres A. 21. Rodriguez N. 37. Grillo F. 23. Riquelme C. 16. Sandoval M. (C) 18. Rodriguez Y. 15. Montecinos J. 20. Henriquez J. 30. Espinoza E. 9. Escobar C.
Substitutes
26. Calderon E. 5. Campos Mosqueira F. 18. Cespedes D. 12. Chandia C. (G) 27. Guzman V. 20. Jeraldino I. 35. Mansilla C. 7. Ovelar F. 3. Salomon C.	27. Acosta D. 24. Cavalleri M. 22. Davila Carvajal M. 19. Jara A. 32. Larrivey J. 8. Martinez F. 7. Romero F. 29. Varas D. 12. Veloso Espinoza N. (G)
Coaches
Ribera J.	Diaz F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', 0 - 1, Henriquez J. (Penalty Awarded),
41', Rodriguez N. 🟨,
43', Calderon P. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Plaza M. ↓, Ovelar F. ↑,
46', Rivera M. ↓, Campos Mosqueira F. ↑,
46', Graciani G. ↓, Calderon E. ↑,
50', Caceres A. ↓, Martinez F. ↑,
55', Escobar C. ↓, Romero F. ↑,
60', Sanhueza D. ↓, Jeraldino I. ↑,
65', Campos Mosqueira F. 🟨,
74', Henriquez J. ↓, Davila Carvajal M. ↑,
74', Espinoza E. ↓, Jara A. ↑,
74', Montecinos J. ↓, Larrivey J. ↑,
75', Campusano J. 🟨,
90+3', Molina Canto L. ↓, Salomon C. ↑,

Preview

In recent matches, both teams have secured multiple victories.

Recently, Deportes Concepción has had a series of home games.

Ñublense is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ñublense won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:9. (average 1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Ñublense won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Nublense	23	8	8	7	28:31	-3	32
9	D. Concepcion	23	9	4	10	25:26	-1	31

Last Results with these Odds

Ñublense - the odds 2.07 are the expected chance of winning is 45.12%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Ñublense
Chilean Primera Division
22.08.26	Universidad Católica - Ñublense	1:2 ✺
16.08.26	Ñublense - Unión La Calera	2:1 ✺
10.08.26	Audax Italiano - Ñublense	2:2 ✺
Chilean Cup
04.08.26	Ñublense - Rangers de Talca	1:0 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
26.07.26	Ñublense - Palestino	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.9 WWTWW
- Deportes Concepción
Chilean Primera Division
23.08.26	Deportes Concepción - Coquimbo Unido	1:1 ✺
16.08.26	Cobresal - Deportes Concepción	0:2 ✺
09.08.26	Deportes Concepción - Universidad de Concepción	1:0 ✺
02.08.26	Deportes Concepción - Universidad Católica	3:0 ✺
26.07.26	Deportes Concepción - OHiggins	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Primera Division
06.03.26	Deportes Concepción - Ñublense	0:2
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
20.03.16	Ñublense - Deportes Concepción	1:3
04.11.15	Deportes Concepción - Ñublense	5:2
Chilean Cup
29.07.15	Deportes Concepción - Ñublense	1:0
08.07.15	Ñublense - Deportes Concepción	0:0

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