Match Info

Liga de Primera - Round 22

Date: 6 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio La Portada (La Serena)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Deportes La Serena		Ñublense

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.2	2.65
	2.50	3.40	2.60
	2.52	3.2	2.72	Watch
	2.56	3.47	2.83
	2.5	3.4	2.7	Watch
	2.5	3.4	2.7
	2.4	3.25	2.6	Watch
	2.45	3.2	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.27)	3.32 ↓ (3.33)	2.68 ↓ (3.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes La Serena
37.4%

Draw
28%

Ñublense
34.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

28%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.2%

28.1%

30.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes La Serena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Ñublense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes La Serena than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ñublense than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Deportes La Serena - Ñublense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Tapia J. (G) 34. Rasso I. 5. Alarcon L. 33. Delgado R. 3. Perez M. 8. Escalante G. 4. Mac Allister F. 14. Chamorro F. 26. Dinamarca F. 9. Henriquez A. 10. Vargas J. (C)	1. Perez N. (G) 6. Calderon P. 4. Bosso Torres O. 15. Valencia S. 16. Sanhueza D. 35. Mansilla C. 10. Plaza M. 28. Rivera M. 14. Campusano J. (C) 19. Tapia I. 9. Rami F.
Substitutes
6. Diaz S. 21. Gutierrez B. 16. Gutierrez J. 1. Lanzillotta F. (G) 28. Orellana J. 29. Pinto M. 11. Rubio D. 17. Salazar Y. 20. Velasquez M.	5. Campos Mosqueira F. 18. Cespedes D. 12. Chandia C. (G) 27. Guzman V. 20. Jeraldino I. 11. Molina Canto L. 7. Ovelar F. 3. Salomon C. 22. Valdes A.
Coaches
Gutierrez F.	Ribera J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
30', Valencia S. 🟨,
41', 0 - 1, Tapia I. ⚽,
43', Dinamarca F. 🟨,
45', 1 - 1, Chamorro F. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Perez M. ↓, Gutierrez B. ↑,
55', Henriquez A. ↓, Rubio D. ↑,
57', Mac Allister F. 🟨,
58', Rivera M. ↓, Cespedes D. ↑,
58', Rami F. ↓, Jeraldino I. ↑,
66', Tapia I. ↓, Ovelar F. ↑,
70', Delgado R. 🟨,
71', Plaza M. ↓, Valdes A. ↑,
71', Campusano J. ↓, Guzman V. ↑,
72', Guzman V. 🟨,
86', Mac Allister F. ↓, Diaz S. ↑,
86', Dinamarca F. ↓, Pinto M. ↑,
88', 2 - 1, Pinto M. ⚽, Escalante G. (A),
90+2', Jeraldino I. 🟨,
90+5', Alarcon L. 🟥,
90+7', Chamorro F. ↓, Gutierrez J. ↑,
90+8', Rubio D. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportes La Serena won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Deportes La Serena won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 18:18. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportes La Serena won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:5. (average 1.1:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Nublense	23	8	8	7	28:31	-3	32
10	La Serena	23	7	9	7	34:38	-4	30

Last Results with these Odds

Deportes La Serena - the odds 2.27 are the expected chance of winning is 41.14%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes La Serena
Chilean Primera Division
31.08.26	Unión La Calera - Deportes La Serena	0:1 ✺
23.08.26	Deportes La Serena - Cobresal	3:3 ✺
14.08.26	Universidad de Concepción - Deportes La Serena	0:2 ✺
08.08.26	Coquimbo Unido - Deportes La Serena	1:1 ✺
02.08.26	Deportes La Serena - OHiggins	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 WTWTL
- Deportivo Ñublense
Chilean Primera Division
02.09.26	Deportes Limache - Ñublense	2:0 ✺
29.08.26	Ñublense - Deportes Concepción	0:1 ✺
22.08.26	Universidad Católica - Ñublense	1:2 ✺
16.08.26	Ñublense - Unión La Calera	2:1 ✺
10.08.26	Audax Italiano - Ñublense	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Primera Division
15.03.26	Ñublense - Deportes La Serena	2:2
18.10.25	Deportes La Serena - Ñublense	1:1
25.04.25	Ñublense - Deportes La Serena	2:0
30.07.22	Deportes La Serena - Ñublense	3:0
04.03.22	Ñublense - Deportes La Serena	3:1
05.10.21	Ñublense - Deportes La Serena	0:1
08.05.21	Deportes La Serena - Ñublense	1:0

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