Match Info

Superettan - Round 5

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Jamtkraft Arena (Ostersund)

Referee: Svraka J. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Sweden	TV4 Play


	Östersund		Värnamo

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.2	2.6
	2.65	3.3	2.4
	2.58	3.35	2.62
	2.63	3.5	2.73
	2.64	3.43	2.54	Watch
	2.45	3.1	2.63
	2.53	3.31	2.69	Watch
	2.48	3.1	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↑ (2.46)	3.29 ↑ (3.28)	2.6 ↓ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Östersund
36.2%

Draw
28.1%

Värnamo
35.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

28.2%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.7%

29.7%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Östersund has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Värnamo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Östersund than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Värnamo than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Östersund - Värnamo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Uppenberg M. (G) 27. Miljanovic D. 19. Widgren D. (C) 14. Anyanwu S. 3. Azzi H. 17. Edwards C. 16. Begic A. 8. Ozkan E. 10. Marklund S. 9. Stensrud A. 28. Adjoumani Y.	1. Keto H. (G) 15. Coulibaly S. 6. Andersson H. 5. Bergqvist D. 3. Bjornstrom A. 7. Johansson C. 23. Robertsson L. 22. Thern S. (C) 17. Bozicevic F. 14. Antonsson M. 9. Meriluoto K.
Substitutes
21. Bozickovic L. 30. Griffiths T. (G) 15. Molls D. 11. Navassardian E. 20. Oluwayemi M. 18. Palomino M. 5. Qasem A. A. 4. Westerberg J. 29. Worke E. Y.	21. Abdulrazak I. 28. Diallo M. C. 19. Freij E. 13. Jansson S. 24. Kamara M. 4. Ohlsson S. 2. Rapp J. 39. Sapielak B. (G) 34. Zulovic B.
Coaches
Miljanovic N.	Tufegdzic S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
29', Meriluoto K. 🟨,
31', 1 - 0, Coulibaly S. (Own goal),
35', 2 - 0, Begic A. ⚽, Marklund S. (A),
45+1', 3 - 0, Marklund S. ⚽, Adjoumani Y. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Coulibaly S. ↓, Rapp J. ↑,
46', Bozicevic F. ↓, Jansson S. ↑,
64', Marklund S. 🟨,
65', 3 - 1, Andersson H. ⚽,
68', Stensrud A. ↓, Navassardian E. ↑,
72', 3 - 2, Meriluoto K. ⚽, Thern S. (A),
76', Begic A. ↓, Molls D. ↑,
76', Azzi H. ↓, Westerberg J. ↑,
80', Edwards C. 🟨,
83', Robertsson L. ↓, Abdulrazak I. ↑,
83', Ozkan E. ↓, Palomino M. ↑,
88', Johansson C. ↓, Kamara M. ↑,
90+4', Adjoumani Y. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 14 in the zone Division 1 ~ Norra (Relegation) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Allsvenskan (Promotion: )).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Värnamo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Östersund has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Outrights of Swedish Superettan for now

Ostersund: 0.16%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Ostersund	25	11	10	4	33:24	9	43
11	Varnamo	25	8	5	12	33:45	-12	29

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Östersunds FK
Swedish Superettan
25.04.26	Öster - Östersund	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Helsingborg - Östersund	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Östersund - Norrby	1:1 ✺
06.04.26	Varbergs BoIS - Östersund	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
28.03.26	Ranheim - Östersund	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LLTWT
- IFK Värnamo
Swedish Superettan
26.04.26	Värnamo - Oddevold	3:1 ✺
18.04.26	Sandviken - Värnamo	0:1 ✺
14.04.26	Värnamo - Sundsvall	3:0 ✺
04.04.26	Norrköping - Värnamo	6:0 ✺
Svenska Cupen
07.03.26	Mjällby - Värnamo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWWLL

Upcoming Matches