Match Info

Superettan - Round 26

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Finnvedsvallen (Varnamo) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Sars J. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Sweden	15:00	TV4 Play


	Värnamo		Falkenberg

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.3	2.7
	2.30	3.50	2.65
	2.35	3.4	2.75
	2.35	3.75	3.01
	2.38	3.52	2.78	Watch
	2.3	3.45	2.95
	2.35	3.45	2.82	Watch
	2.31	3.35	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↓ (2.37)	3.47 ↓ (3.49)	2.8 ↑ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Värnamo
40%

Draw
26.8%

Falkenberg
33.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39.4%

26.8%

33.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.1%

27%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Värnamo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Falkenberg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Värnamo than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Falkenberg than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Värnamo - Falkenberg Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Keto H. (G) 18. Motaraghebjafarpour A. 2. Rapp J. 16. Ravik Z. 3. Bjornstrom A. 8. Andersson H. 10. Claesson V. (C) 26. Johansson C. 11. Ljungberg A. 9. Meriluoto K. 14. Antonsson M.	1. Andersson A. (G) 6. Borgstrom L. 17. Miftari A. 23. Salo A. (C) 12. Rupia-Ellis A. 19. Lindberg O. 30. Aguda G. 28. Nilsson M. 10. Mohammad E. 9. Andersson A. 11. Kallstrom H.
Substitutes
33. Akinfenwa M. 19. Freij E. 13. Jansson S. 7. Johansson C. 24. Kamara M. 4. Ohlsson S. 23. Robertsson L. 39. Selin L. (G) 22. Thern S.	25. Alexandersson G. 21. Beqiri L. 8. Bertilsson N. 5. Hansson N. 29. Komano H. 31. Lillienberg G. (G) 18. Sangare L. 4. Stalheden T. 14. Videhult W.
Coaches
Bergstrand K.	Andersson C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Andersson A. (Penalty Awarded),
13', 1 - 1, Andersson H. ⚽, Bjornstrom A. (A),
32', Miftari A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Miftari A. ↓, Stalheden T. ↑,
47', Aguda G. 🟨,
65', Rupia-Ellis A. ↓, Bertilsson N. ↑,
68', Ljungberg A. ↓, Akinfenwa M. ↑,
74', Kallstrom H. 🟨,
83', Johansson C. ↓, Jansson S. ↑,
83', Andersson H. ↓, Johansson C. ↑,
85', 1 - 2, Andersson A. ⚽,
86', Meriluoto K. ↓, Thern S. ↑,
88', Kallstrom H. ↓, Hansson N. ↑,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 11th and 2nd in the Promotion - Allsvenskan).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Värnamo won 3.

Both teams look competitive and well-prepared heading into this encounter.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 13 head-to-head meetings, Värnamo has recorded 4 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 16:26 (averaging 1.2:2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Värnamo against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with 10:13 goals (averaging 1.7:2.2 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Falkenberg	28	15	6	7	52:38	14	51
11	Varnamo	28	9	5	14	35:48	-13	32

Last Results with these Odds

Värnamo - the odds 2.37 are the expected chance of winning is 39.4%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- IFK Värnamo
Swedish Superettan
19.09.26	Oddevold - Värnamo	1:2 ✺
15.09.26	Värnamo - Öster	1:3 ✺
09.09.26	United Nordic - Värnamo	2:4 ✺
05.09.26	Värnamo - Varbergs BoIS	1:1 ✺
29.08.26	Ljungskile - Värnamo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WLWTW
- Falkenbergs FF
Swedish Superettan
18.09.26	Falkenberg - Östersund	0:0 ✺
13.09.26	Ljungskile - Falkenberg	0:2 ✺
10.09.26	Falkenberg - Öster	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Oddevold - Falkenberg	2:1 ✺
29.08.26	Falkenberg - Brage	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Swedish Superettan
23.05.26	Falkenberg - Värnamo	3:1
25.10.21	Värnamo - Falkenberg	3:2
01.05.21	Falkenberg - Värnamo	0:3
Club Friendly
09.02.19	Falkenberg - Värnamo	0:1
Swedish Superettan
28.10.18	Falkenberg - Värnamo	3:0
Club Friendly
21.07.18	Värnamo - Falkenberg	2:1
Swedish Superettan
29.05.18	Värnamo - Falkenberg	1:4

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