Match Info

TURKEY: Super Lig - Round 15

Date: 8 December 2024, Sunday

Location: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium (Istanbul)

Referee: Kargin E. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub
Mexico	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Peru	Disney+
Slovenia	Sportklub
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
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Usa	beIN Connect
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Disney+, Fanatiz


	İstanbul Başakşehir		Hatayspor

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.7	4.2	Watch
	1.75	3.5	4.6
	1.74	3.58	4.74	Watch
	1.78	3.61	5.18
	1.77	3.62	4.81	Watch
	1.73	3.75	4.4
	1.81	3.85	4.68	Watch
	1.74	3.58	4.74
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↑ (1.55)	3.65 ↓ (4.47)	4.67 ↓ (5.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

İstanbul Başakşehir
53.9%

Draw
25.9%

Hatayspor
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.6%

21%

18.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.6%

21.7%

17.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

İstanbul Başakşehir has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that İstanbul Başakşehir's form might have worsened.

Hatayspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for İstanbul Başakşehir than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for İstanbul Başakşehir, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hatayspor than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	14.3%	0%

İstanbul Başakşehir - Hatayspor Predictions

Users Predictions: İstanbul Başakşehir will win (18 of 21 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.74% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Sengezer M. (G) 5. Duarte L. 27. Ba O. 3. Opoku J. 6. Lima L. 4. Ergun O. 23. Turuc D. 8. Kemen O. 13. Crespo M. 91. Davidson 9. Piatek K.	1. Kardesler E. (G) 15. Yilmaz R. B. 3. Kilama G. 4. Calvo F. 88. Sertel C. 5. Saglam G. 17. Diack L. 7. Bamgboye F. 14. Rui Pedro 77. Fernandes J. 9. Aboubakar V.
Substitutes
1. Babacan V. (G) 98. Dilmen D. (G) 25. Figueiredo J. 15. Gureler H. 75. Kaplan E. 11. Keny P. P. 2. Ozdemir B. 14. Pelkas D. 18. Szysz P.	22. Alici K. 12. Bekaj V. (G) 98. Boutobba B. 2. Corekci K. 27. Demir C. 31. Matur O. 6. Parmak A. 34. Saricali D. (G) 16. Temel S. 25. Yildiz A.
Coaches
Atan C.	Calimbay R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
44', Opoku J. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
56', 1 - 0, Crespo M. ⚽,
65', Yilmaz R. B. ↓, Alici K. ↑,
65', Sertel C. ↓, Demir C. ↑,
71', Davidson ↓, Figueiredo J. ↑,
71', Rui Pedro ↓, Parmak A. ↑,
71', Bamgboye F. ↓, Boutobba B. ↑,
78', Crespo M. ↓, Ozdemir B. ↑,
83', 2 - 0, Piatek K. ⚽,
89', Piatek K. ↓, Keny P. P. ↑,
90', Turuc D. ↓, Kaplan E. ↑,
90+1', Fernandes J. 🟨,
90+2', Kilama G. 🟨,
90+4', 3 - 0, Keny P. P. ⚽,

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 7 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 1. Lig).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Başakşehir won 4.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Başakşehir could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Başakşehir is a favorite.

There will not play in Başakşehir: Ozcan B. (Suspended)

There will not play in Hatayspor: Massanga Matondo (Foot Injury)

Last 10 head-to-head matches Başakşehir won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 17:16 (average 1.7:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Başakşehir won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8:6 (average 1.6:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- İstanbul Başakşehir
Turkish Super League
30.11.24	İstanbul Başakşehir - Göztepe	4:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.24	İstanbul Başakşehir - Petrocub-Hîncești	1:1 ✺
Turkish Super League
23.11.24	Gaziantep - İstanbul Başakşehir	3:0 ✺
10.11.24	İstanbul Başakşehir - Beşiktaş	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
07.11.24	Copenhagen - İstanbul Başakşehir	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WTLTT
- Hatayspor
Turkish Cup
05.12.24	Hatayspor - Osmaniyespor	5:0 ✺
Turkish Super League
02.12.24	Hatayspor - Beşiktaş	1:1 ✺
24.11.24	Konyaspor - Hatayspor	1:1 ✺
09.11.24	Hatayspor - Gaziantep	3:1 ✺
03.11.24	Eyüpspor - Hatayspor	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
27.04.24	Hatayspor - İstanbul Başakşehir	1:2
Turkish Cup
07.02.24	İstanbul Başakşehir - Hatayspor	2:1 penalties
Turkish Super League
10.12.23	İstanbul Başakşehir - Hatayspor	1:0
07.11.22	Hatayspor - İstanbul Başakşehir	3:3
24.04.22	İstanbul Başakşehir - Hatayspor	3:0
05.12.21	Hatayspor - İstanbul Başakşehir	0:3
30.01.21	İstanbul Başakşehir - Hatayspor	1:5

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