Match Info

Turkish Cup - Round 4

Date: 3 March 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu (Istanbul) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Albayrak A. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Austria	13:30	A Spor
Slovenia	13:30	SportKlub 1
Turkey	15:30	A Spor


	İstanbulspor		Boluspor

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.5	4.2
	1.58	4	4.4
	1.61	4.2	4.65	Watch
	1.62	4.35	4.34
	2.13	3.62	3.09	Watch
	1.62	4	4.2
	1.61	4.33	4.51	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.94)	4.14 ↑ (3.72)	4.2 ↑ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

İstanbulspor
55.5%

Draw
22.4%

Boluspor
22.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

47.9%

24.9%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

24.5%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

İstanbulspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in İstanbulspor's performance.

Boluspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Boluspor might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for İstanbulspor than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with İstanbulspor that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boluspor than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	9.5%	4.8%

İstanbulspor - Boluspor Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH -0.75 - İstanbulspor (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Boluspor (2.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: İstanbulspor will win (18 of 21 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.74% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): İstanbulspor will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. İstanbulspor (votes: 7 - 77.8%). Boluspor (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Serbest M. (G) 58. Dagasan M. 95. Bozkus B. 32. Mermerci D. 92. Colak M. 8. Temel V. 33. Ay F. K. 7. Sambissa D. (C) 37. Phellipe 30. Cham A. 31. Sandikci E.	91. Dirdiroglu T. (G) 77. Uresin A. 4. Cetin M. 35. Akkan G. 14. Kirim A. (C) 15. Topcu B. 23. Yilmaz C. 34. Alpsoy H. 16. Cakmak T. 83. Yilmaz B. 20. Cayli M. A.
Substitutes
91. Akdag M. (G) 85. Alikan E. 80. Aycicek A. 21. Duhaney D. 94. Polat B. 81. San E. A. 18. Tuncer T. 42. Yavuz S. 35. Yilmaz T.	92. Acikgoz M. 93. Akbulut E. 82. Akgun A. 79. Aydin C. 76. Dizbay K. A. (G) 81. Kazanci E. 73. Ozdemir K. 33. Saygi A. 46. Yildiz M.
Coaches
Kanbak B.	Kaya S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Cham A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
51', Phellipe ↓, Yavuz S. ↑,
55', Yilmaz C. 🟨,
57', Yilmaz B. ↓, Acikgoz M. ↑,
61', Mermerci D. 🟨,
66', Sambissa D. (Penalty Awarded),
67', Sambissa D. ↓, Yilmaz T. ↑,
67', Sandikci E. ↓, San E. A. ↑,
67', Temel V. ↓, Polat B. ↑,
70', Cakmak T. ↓, Kazanci E. ↑,
74', Yilmaz C. ↓, Aydin C. ↑,
74', Topcu B. ↓, Yildiz M. ↑,
80', Cham A. ↓, Alikan E. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 8 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, İstanbulspor won 1.

İstanbulspor has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Boluspor's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

İstanbulspor is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, İstanbulspor won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 15:19. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, İstanbulspor won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:11. (average 0.9:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Boluspor - the odds 3.4 are the expected chance of winning is 27.23%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- İstanbulspor AŞ
Turkish First League
27.02.26	İstanbulspor - Igdirspor	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	Boluspor - İstanbulspor	0:1 ✺
17.02.26	İstanbulspor - Erokspor	1:4 ✺
13.02.26	Çorum - İstanbulspor	2:3 ✺
08.02.26	Umraniyespor - İstanbulspor	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.3 LWLWT
- Boluspor
Turkish First League
27.02.26	Erokspor - Boluspor	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Boluspor - İstanbulspor	0:1 ✺
17.02.26	Umraniyespor - Boluspor	4:2 ✺
13.02.26	Boluspor - Hatayspor	3:1 ✺
08.02.26	Manisa FK - Boluspor	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Turkish First League
21.02.26	Boluspor - İstanbulspor	0:1
28.09.25	İstanbulspor - Boluspor	1:1
15.05.25	İstanbulspor - Boluspor	1:2
10.03.25	Boluspor - İstanbulspor	1:0
27.10.24	İstanbulspor - Boluspor	1:2
16.02.22	İstanbulspor - Boluspor	1:2
20.09.21	Boluspor - İstanbulspor	1:1

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