Match Info

National League North - Round 4

Date: 23 August 2025, Saturday

Location: New Bucks Head (Telford)


	AFC Telford United		Buxton

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.5	2.25
	2.7	3.25	2.25
	2.78	3.35	2.32
	2.88	3.35	2.38
	2.97	3.41	2.25	Watch
	2.8	3.2	2.4
	2.81	3.34	2.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↑ (2.32)	3.34 ↓ (3.52)	2.31 ↓ (2.57)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AFC Telford United
32.8%

Draw
27.5%

Buxton
39.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.1%

25.7%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.9%

26.2%

34.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AFC Telford United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that AFC Telford United's form might have worsened.

Buxton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AFC Telford United than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for AFC Telford United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Buxton than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Buxton, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

AFC Telford United - Buxton Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Telford (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
64', Ward G. 🟥,
90+6', 0 - 1, Brennan L. ⚽,

Preview

Telford is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Buxton has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Telford won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Telford won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Last Results with these Odds

AFC Telford United - the odds 2.32 are the expected chance of winning is 39.08%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AFC Telford United
English National League North
19.08.25	Bedford Town - AFC Telford United	3:1 ✺
16.08.25	AFC Telford United - Curzon Ashton	1:1 ✺
09.08.25	King`s Lynn Town - AFC Telford United	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
29.07.25	AFC Telford United - Hednesford Town	1:2 ✺
15.07.25	AFC Telford United - Shrewsbury Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LTTLL
- Buxton FC
English National League North
19.08.25	Buxton - Hereford	1:2 ✺
16.08.25	Marine - Buxton	2:1 ✺
09.08.25	Buxton - Radcliffe	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.25	Warrington Town - Buxton	0:2 ✺
26.07.25	Buxton - Manchester City U21	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
14.01.23	Buxton - AFC Telford United	0:2
29.08.22	AFC Telford United - Buxton	1:1

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