Match Info

Superliga - Round 2

Date: 25 July 2025, Friday

Location: New Vejlby Stadium (Aarhus)

Referee: Sundberg J. (Den)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Sweden	Viaplay
Ukraine	Sport 1, Sport 3


	AGF Aarhus		Randers FC

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.5	3.9	Watch
	1.93	3.5	3.7
	1.97	3.5	3.75	Watch
	2	3.65	3.9
	1.42	4.46	7.44	Watch
	2.05	3.3	3.4
	1.99	3.48	3.81	Watch
	2.1	3.35	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↓ (2.09)	3.59 ↑ (3.35)	4.17 ↑ (3.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AGF Aarhus
50.1%

Draw
26.8%

Randers FC
23.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.9%

28%

27.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.7%

28.1%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AGF Aarhus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in AGF Aarhus's performance.

Randers FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AGF Aarhus than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with AGF Aarhus that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Randers FC than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	50%	7.1%

AGF Aarhus - Randers FC Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Aarhus will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%). Randers will win (votes: 1 - 7.1%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.8% – 76.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 8 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Randers (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): AGF Aarhus will win (10 of 13 users predict this - 76.92%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Aarhus (votes: 10 - 71.4%). Randers (votes: 1 - 7.1%). Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hansen J. (G) 3. Dalsgaard H. 5. Tingager F. 19. Kahl E. 2. Beijmo F. 6. Poulsen N. 7. Madsen M. 11. Links G. 31. Bech T. 9. Mortensen P. (C) 10. Arnstad K.	32. Storch J. (G) 44. Dyhr N. 4. Dammers W. (C) 3. Hoegh D. 24. Hansen S. 10. Campbell N. 6. Bjorkengren J. 16. Pedersen L. 17. Greve M. 11. Mahmoud E. 7. Toure M.
Substitutes
23. Bach T. 29. Carstensen R. 39. Emmery F. 40. Jensen-Abbew J. 8. Jorgensen S. 13. Serra J. 27. Tchamche S. 22. Wahlstedt L. (G) 17. Yakob K.	52. Albaek M. 26. Danho F. 51. Henriksen O. (G) 14. Lauenborg F. 2. Lissens L. 27. Olsen O. 20. Sulemana H. 30. Themsen M. 19. Toure M.
Coaches
Poulsen J.	Bertelsen R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Mortensen P. ⚽, Links G. (A),
8', Arnstad K. 🟨,
45+3', Mortensen P. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Hansen S. ↓, Olsen O. ↑,
51', 1 - 1, Campbell N. ⚽, Toure M. (A),
53', 1 - 2, Mahmoud E. ⚽, Campbell N. (A),
60', Bjorkengren J. 🟨,
64', Mortensen P. 🟨,
68', Campbell N. ↓, Themsen M. ↑,
69', Toure M. ↓, Danho F. ↑,
69', Bech T. ↓, Tchamche S. ↑,
69', Links G. ↓, Carstensen R. ↑,
79', Kahl E. ↓, Emmery F. ↑,
81', Mahmoud E. ↓, Lauenborg F. ↑,
87', Poulsen N. ↓, Jorgensen S. ↑,
87', Arnstad K. ↓, Yakob K. ↑,
90', Storch J. 🟨,
90+1', Pedersen L. ↓, Lissens L. ↑,
90+1', Danho F. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aarhus won 1.

Aarhus is showing really good form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Randers's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Randers may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Aarhus might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Aarhus: Andersen J. (Injury) Badji Y. (Lacking Match Fitness) Molgaard T. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Randers: Themsen M. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aarhus won 5 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 22:25. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Aarhus won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:13. (average 1.1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AGF Aarhus
Danish Superliga
20.07.25	SønderjyskE - AGF Aarhus	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
12.07.25	Ajax - AGF Aarhus	1:1 ✺
06.07.25	AGF Aarhus - OB Odense	0:0 ✺
02.07.25	AGF Aarhus - Horsens	2:1 ✺
25.06.25	AGF Aarhus - Vejle Boldklub Kolding	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TTTWW
- Randers FC
Danish Superliga
20.07.25	Vejle Boldklub Kolding - Randers FC	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
02.07.25	Midtjylland - Randers FC	2:3 ✺
28.06.25	Randers FC - Viborg	2:0 ✺
Danish Superliga
01.06.25	Randers FC - Silkeborg IF	1:3 ✺
25.05.25	Midtjylland - Randers FC	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Danish Superliga
11.05.25	AGF Aarhus - Randers FC	1:3
17.04.25	Randers FC - AGF Aarhus	3:1
28.02.25	Randers FC - AGF Aarhus	1:1
28.09.24	AGF Aarhus - Randers FC	2:2
30.10.23	AGF Aarhus - Randers FC	2:1
24.09.23	Randers FC - AGF Aarhus	1:1
30.05.23	Randers FC - AGF Aarhus	1:3

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