Match Info

Challenge League - Round 36

Date: 15 May 2026, Friday

Location: Stadion Brügglifeld (Aarau)

Referee: Wolfensberger S. (Sui)


	Aarau		Yverdon

	1	X	2
	1.38	4.95	6.1
	1.37	5.2	6.22
	1.41	5.04	6.3	Watch
	1.36	4.6	5.75
	1.35	4.95	6.36	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.71)	4.95 ↑ (4.08)	6.15 ↑ (3.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aarau
66.6%

Draw
18.5%

Yverdon
14.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.8%

22.6%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.2%

22%

23%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aarau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Aarau's performance.

Yverdon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Yverdon might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aarau than the current prediction. (-11.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Aarau that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Yverdon than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Yverdon could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	9.1%	0%

Aarau - Yverdon Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Aarau (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Aarau (1.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Aarau will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Aarau (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hubel M. (G) 29. Dickenmann M. 15. Muller S. 5. Acquah D. 2. Thaler M. (C) 3. Guzzo R. 10. Fazliu V. 13. Zoukit N. 23. Frokaj L. 11. Vladi S. 9. Filet E.	1. Enzler S. (G) 50. Bittarelli L. 25. Pos L. 18. Kongsro V. 26. Golliard R. 8. Chappuis A. 12. Saiz F. 19. Sessolo H. 20. Tasar V. 44. Pasche E. 10. Marchesano A. (C)
Substitutes
18. Afriyie D. 6. Aliu I. 32. Bobadilla R. 25. Derbaci D. 30. Hirzel A. (G) 8. Jackle O. 17. Koide H. 31. Petit V. 19. Schwegler S.	14. Camara S. 4. Doumbia O. 7. Kanoute M. 22. Martin K. (G) 27. Neelakandan R. 51. Novaresi M. 16. Rouiller M. (G) 2. Tijani M. 17. Weber P.
Coaches
Iacopetta B.	Andermatt M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
4', 1 - 0, Acquah D. ⚽,
42', 2 - 0, Frokaj L. ⚽,
45+1', 2 - 1, Sessolo H. ⚽, Marchesano A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', Frokaj L. 🟨,
59', Golliard R. ↓, Doumbia O. ↑,
59', Tasar V. ↓, Neelakandan R. ↑,
63', 2 - 2, Marchesano A. ⚽, Sessolo H. (A),
66', Frokaj L. ↓, Aliu I. ↑,
70', Saiz F. 🟨,
72', Vladi S. ↓, Afriyie D. ↑,
78', Pasche E. ↓, Kanoute M. ↑,
83', Sessolo H. ↓, Weber P. ↑,
86', Zoukit N. ↓, Koide H. ↑,
86', Filet E. ↓, Bobadilla R. ↑,
86', Guzzo R. ↓, Petit V. ↑,
90+2', Weber P. 🟨,
90+3', Kongsro V. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aarau won 2.

Aarau is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Yverdon is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Aarau is the team to beat.

There will not play in Aarau: Obexer L. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Yverdon: Baron A. (Injury) Busset R. (Injury) Camara S. (Injury) Le Pogam W. (Leg Injury) Thiam M. (Injury) Tijani M. (Inactive)

We predict that Aarau will win today's game, with odds of 1.5.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Aarau won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 19:16. (average 1.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Aarau won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 1.2:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Yverdon	9	4	4	1	14:9	5	16
5	Aarau	9	3	3	3	14:16	-2	12

Last Results with these Odds

Aarau - the odds 1.71 are the expected chance of winning is 53.83%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Yverdon - the odds 3.91 are the expected chance of winning is 23.57%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Aarau
Swiss Challenge League
11.05.26	Vaduz - Aarau	1:2 ✺
08.05.26	Aarau - Stade Nyonnais	5:1 ✺
01.05.26	Neuchâtel Xamax - Aarau	1:3 ✺
25.04.26	Wil 1900 - Aarau	2:2 ✺
22.04.26	Aarau - Lausanne Ouchy	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWWTW
- Yverdon-Sport FC
Swiss Challenge League
11.05.26	Yverdon - Rapperswil-Jona	3:1 ✺
08.05.26	Wil 1900 - Yverdon	0:1 ✺
03.05.26	Yverdon - Étoile Carouge	3:5 ✺
26.04.26	Lausanne Ouchy - Yverdon	0:3 ✺
22.04.26	Yverdon - Neuchâtel Xamax	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Challenge League
30.01.26	Yverdon - Aarau	1:2
07.12.25	Yverdon - Aarau	1:2
03.10.25	Aarau - Yverdon	1:2
23.05.23	Yverdon - Aarau	1:1
10.02.23	Aarau - Yverdon	1:2
04.11.22	Aarau - Yverdon	3:2
30.09.22	Yverdon - Aarau	2:2

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