Match Info

Challenge League - Round 35

Date: 11 May 2026, Monday

Location: Rheinpark Stadion (Vaduz)

Referee: Schnyder U. (Sui)

Where to Watch on TV:


Switzerland	Blue Sport D1, Blue Sport D1, Blue Zoom


	Vaduz		Aarau

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.62	3.65	2.28
	2.81	3.85	2.32
	2.77	3.64	2.33	Watch
	2.63	3.4	2.25
	2.71	3.5	2.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↑ (2.33)	3.61 ↑ (3.53)	2.29 ↓ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vaduz
34.1%

Draw
25.6%

Aarau
40.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.5%

26%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

25.7%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vaduz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vaduz's form might have worsened.

Aarau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Aarau's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vaduz than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vaduz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aarau than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Aarau, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	16.7%	33.3%

Vaduz - Aarau Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Vaduz will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Aarau will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Schaffran L. (G) 14. Beeli M. 27. Lang N. 6. Simani D. 7. Schwizer D. 20. Mack L. 24. Gasser C. (C) 8. Seiler S. 28. Cocic M. 9. Monsberger M. 15. Beyer B.	1. Hubel M. (G) 15. Muller S. 5. Acquah D. 2. Thaler M. (C) 29. Dickenmann M. 13. Zoukit N. 23. Frokaj L. 27. Obexer L. 10. Fazliu V. 11. Vladi S. 9. Filet E.
Substitutes
1. Buchel B. (G) 17. Campos A. 30. Dantas Fernandes R. 16. De Donno G. 29. De Donno J. 22. Eberhard M. 26. Hammerich M. 11. Navarro J. 3. Sawadogo M.	18. Afriyie D. 6. Aliu I. 32. Bobadilla R. 25. Derbaci D. 3. Guzzo R. 30. Hirzel A. (G) 8. Jackle O. 17. Koide H. 31. Petit V.
Coaches
Schneider M.	Iacopetta B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', Zoukit N. 🟨,
18', Dickenmann M. 🟨,
21', Simani D. 🟨,
26', Beyer B. 🟨,
37', 0 - 1, Vladi S. ⚽, Fazliu V. (A),
45', 1 - 1, Cocic M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
69', Obexer L. 🟨,
75', Seiler S. ↓, Hammerich M. ↑,
75', Beyer B. ↓, Campos A. ↑,
76', Vladi S. ↓, Afriyie D. ↑,
76', Frokaj L. ↓, Koide H. ↑,
83', Obexer L. ↓, Petit V. ↑,
83', Dickenmann M. ↓, Aliu I. ↑,
83', Cocic M. ↓, Dantas Fernandes R. ↑,
86', Filet E. ↓, Bobadilla R. ↑,
90+2', Campos A. 🟨,
90+3', Monsberger M. ↓, De Donno J. ↑,
90+4', 1 - 2, Acquah D. ⚽, Zoukit N. (A),
90+6', Acquah D. 🟨,
90+6', Schwizer D. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vaduz won 1.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Vaduz: Berisha L. (Broken rib) Hasler N. (Red Card) Oehri T. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Vaduz won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 28:28. (average 1.4:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Vaduz won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:16. (average 1.6:1.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Aarau	9	3	3	3	14:16	-2	12

Last Results with these Odds

Aarau - the odds 2.67 are the expected chance of winning is 34.46%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Vaduz
Swiss Challenge League
08.05.26	Étoile Carouge - Vaduz	1:2 ✺
02.05.26	Vaduz - Lausanne Ouchy	2:2 ✺
24.04.26	Stade Nyonnais - Vaduz	1:3 ✺
19.04.26	Vaduz - Rapperswil-Jona	2:1 ✺
10.04.26	Yverdon - Vaduz	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WTWWL
- FC Aarau
Swiss Challenge League
08.05.26	Aarau - Stade Nyonnais	5:1 ✺
01.05.26	Neuchâtel Xamax - Aarau	1:3 ✺
25.04.26	Wil 1900 - Aarau	2:2 ✺
22.04.26	Aarau - Lausanne Ouchy	3:0 ✺
11.04.26	Bellinzona - Aarau	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Challenge League
13.03.26	Aarau - Vaduz	2:0
19.12.25	Vaduz - Aarau	3:2
13.09.25	Aarau - Vaduz	1:0
18.04.25	Aarau - Vaduz	2:2
23.02.25	Vaduz - Aarau	0:1
05.10.24	Aarau - Vaduz	0:0
20.09.24	Vaduz - Aarau	2:5

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