Match Info

WALES: CYMRU SOUTH - ROUND 20

Date: 12 January 2024, Friday


	Abergavenny Town		Goytre United

	1	X	2
	5.5	4.75	1.42
	5.07	4.6	1.43
	5.07	4.61	1.43
	5.63	4.75	1.42
	5.2	4.6	1.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.29 ↑ (3.22)	4.66 ↓ (5)	1.42 ↓ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Abergavenny Town
17.1%

Draw
19.4%

Goytre United
63.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.5%

18.4%

53.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28%

18.1%

54.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Abergavenny Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Abergavenny Town's form might have worsened.

Goytre United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Goytre United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Abergavenny Town than the current prediction. (+10.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Abergavenny Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Goytre United than the current prediction. (-9.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Goytre United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 in the zone Relegation and 8).

Abergavenny Town is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Goytre United is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Abergavenny Town could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Goytre United have a series of home games.

Goytre United will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Abergavenny Town won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Abergavenny Town won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Abergavenny Town
Welsh Cymru South
06.01.24	Pontardawe Town - Abergavenny Town	1:0 ✺
02.01.24	Abergavenny Town - Abertillery Bluebirds	3:1 ✺
26.12.23	Abertillery Bluebirds - Abergavenny Town	1:1 ✺
15.12.23	Abergavenny Town - Carmarthen Town	0:2 ✺
01.12.23	Carmarthen Town - Abergavenny Town	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWTLL
- Goytre United
Welsh Cymru South
06.01.24	Carmarthen Town - Goytre United	2:2 ✺
15.12.23	Goytre United - Baglan Dragons	3:2 ✺
08.12.23	Goytre United - Afan Lido	1:1 ✺
28.11.23	Goytre United - Pontardawe Town	4:1 ✺
17.11.23	Goytre United - Carmarthen Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 TWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
10.11.23	Goytre United - Abergavenny Town	3:2
11.03.23	Goytre United - Abergavenny Town	2:1
12.08.22	Abergavenny Town - Goytre United	3:1

Abergavenny Town - Goytre United: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide