Match Info

QSL - Round 5

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium (Doha)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA
Qatar	Al Kass Four, Shoof


	Al-Ahli Doha		Al-Rayyan

	1	X	2
	4.65	4.05	1.58
	5.03	4.17	1.62
	4.84	3.98	1.6	Watch
	4.2	3.75	1.73
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.68 ↑ (4.21)	3.99 ↑ (3.75)	1.63 ↓ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Ahli Doha
19.8%

Draw
23.3%

Al-Rayyan
56.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.9%

24.6%

53.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.4%

24%

54.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Ahli Doha has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Al-Rayyan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Ahli Doha than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Rayyan than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Al Ahli Doha - Al Rayyan Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Rayyan (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Al-Rayyan (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Rayyan (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Naim Y. (G) 18. Mohammed J. (C) 5. Mitrovic M. 88. Amraoui A. 12. Mohammed H. 33. Mohammed K. 6. Diallo I. 29. Gannan S. 14. Vlap M. 7. Draxler J. 9. Yansane S.	57. Abunada M. (G) 21. Yousif A. 13. Amaro A. 8. Gaber J. 12. Al Minhali A. 77. Tiago Silva 55. Saleh M. 19. Rodrigo 7. Wesley 10. Roger Guedes (C) 9. Mitrovic A.
Substitutes
2. Abdelbaset E. 70. Abdelrahman Y. 17. Alawi O. 4. Ali T. 35. Badredlin M. (G) 24. Doumbouya A. 10. Exposito E. 41. Fadlelmawla A. 8. Fettouhi D. 20. Mansour H. 11. Moustafa A. 3. Yassine I.	3. Ahmed H. 30. Alaaeldin A. 94. Al Qahtani A. 27. Assr M. 14. Bader A. 22. Beldi S. (G) 11. Gabriel Pereira 5. Garcia D. 40. Gregore 18. Mamdouh B. 2. Naji M. 17. Surag M.
Coaches
Biscan I.	Artur Jorge

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
5', Mohammed H. 🟨,
29', 0 - 1, Rodrigo ⚽, Wesley (A),
34', Draxler J. 🟨,
35', Gaber J. 🟨,
45+1', 0 - 2, Mitrovic A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', Gannan S. ↓, Fadlelmawla A. ↑,
57', Mohammed J. ↓, Moustafa A. ↑,
60', Gaber J. ↓, Alaaeldin A. ↑,
60', Mitrovic A. ↓, Gregore ↑,
68', Amraoui A. ↓, Fettouhi D. ↑,
69', Fadlelmawla A. 🟨,
70', Wesley ↓, Garcia D. ↑,
70', Saleh M. ↓, Surag M. ↑,
78', Rodrigo ↓, Gabriel Pereira ↑,
86', 0 - 3, Roger Guedes ⚽, Surag M. (A),
88', Mohammed K. ↓, Ali T. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 in the zone QSL (Relegation) and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Al-Ahli Doha won 2.

Recent performances by Al-Ahli Doha have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Al-Rayyan is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Al-Rayyan may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.

In this match, Al-Rayyan is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Al-Ahli Doha won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 17:41. (average 0.9:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Al-Ahli Doha won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 8:25. (average 0.7:2.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Al-Rayyan - the odds 1.73 are the expected chance of winning is 53.41%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Ahli Doha
AFC Champions League 2
17.09.25	Al-Ahli Doha - Al Khalidiah	0:0 ✺
Qatar QSL
13.09.25	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Wakrah	5:3 ✺
Qatar QSL Cup
02.09.25	Al-Ahli Doha - Al Duhail	0:0 ✺
Qatar QSL
30.08.25	Qatar SC - Al-Ahli Doha	2:0 ✺
21.08.25	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Sadd	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TWTLL
- Al-Rayyan SC
Qatar QSL
13.09.25	Al-Rayyan - Qatar SC	1:1 ✺
Qatar QSL Cup
03.09.25	Al-Rayyan - Qatar SC	4:1 ✺
Qatar QSL
28.08.25	Al-Rayyan - Al Duhail	1:0 ✺
22.08.25	Al-Shamal - Al-Rayyan	4:2 ✺
14.08.25	Al-Rayyan - Al-Sailiya	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Qatar Emir Cup
18.05.25	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Rayyan	0:3
Qatar QSL
29.03.25	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Rayyan	1:0
Qatar QSL Cup
10.11.24	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Rayyan	3:2
Qatar QSL
26.10.24	Al-Rayyan - Al-Ahli Doha	2:2
24.04.24	Al-Rayyan - Al-Ahli Doha	4:1
02.12.23	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Rayyan	0:4
13.02.23	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Rayyan	0:4

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