Match Info

QSL - Round 21

Date: 8 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium (Doha)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Qatar	Al Kass Six, Shoof


	Al-Ahli Doha		Al Duhail

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.65	1.82
	4.24	3.76	1.86
	4.03	3.94	1.76	Watch
	3.9	3.4	1.8
	4.09	3.57	1.84	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.01 ↓ (4.19)	3.66 ↓ (4.11)	1.82 ↑ (1.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Ahli Doha
23.2%

Draw
25.4%

Al Duhail
51.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.2%

22.6%

55.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.2%

21.6%

57.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Ahli Doha has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Al Duhail has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Ahli Doha than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al Duhail than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Al Duhail could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Al Ahli Doha - Al Duhail Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Badredlin M. (G) 41. Reyed A. 16. Tihi R. 5. Troost-Ekong W. 3. Yassine I. 20. Mansour H. 8. Fettouhi D. (C) 29. Gannan S. 14. Vlap M. 7. Draxler J. 9. Yansane S.	1. Zakaria S. (G) 45. Mohamed M. 3. Tuta 21. Castelletto J. 18. Al Brake S. 22. Bamba I. 34. Soumare B. 25. Hamza M. 19. Bourigeaud B. (C) 77. Boulbina A. 29. Al Abdulla R.
Substitutes
70. Abdelrahman Y. 17. Alawi O. 21. Al Ishaq M. 95. Al Nasr N. 88. Amraoui A. 6. Diallo I. 24. Doumbouya A. 10. Exposito E. 12. Mohammed H. 33. Mohammed K. 1. Naim Y. (G) 23. Radwan K.	11. Ali A. 14. Al Minhali G. 4. Aymen Y. 30. Burke B. (G) 8. Edmilson Junior 96. Hassan A. (G) 81. Jamshid T. 15. Luiz Ceara 9. Piatek K. 17. Sabaly Y.
Coaches
Ali Y.	Belmadi D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Vlap M. ⚽,
39', Gannan S. 🟨,
45+1', Mohamed M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Al Abdulla R. ↓, Ali A. ↑,
46', Tuta ↓, Sabaly Y. ↑,
46', Mohamed M. ↓, Aymen Y. ↑,
57', 1 - 1, Bourigeaud B. ⚽, Hamza M. (A),
59', Yansane S. ↓, Exposito E. ↑,
61', Bourigeaud B. ↓, Piatek K. ↑,
68', Al Brake S. ↓, Al Minhali G. ↑,
74', Gannan S. ↓, Abdelrahman Y. ↑,
78', Reyed A. 🟨,
79', Soumare B. 🟨,
80', Abdelrahman Y. 🟨,
82', 2 - 1, Draxler J. ⚽, Reyed A. (A),
84', Draxler J. ↓, Diallo I. ↑,
85', Mansour H. ↓, Radwan K. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 9 and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Al-Ahli Doha won 1.

Al-Ahli Doha has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Al Duhail is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Al Duhail is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Al-Ahli Doha won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 19:61. (average 1:3.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Al-Ahli Doha won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 6:26. (average 0.6:2.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Al Duhail	4	1	3	0	5:3	2	6
8	Al Ahli Doha	4	1	1	2	5:9	-4	4

Last Results with these Odds

Al Duhail - the odds 1.68 are the expected chance of winning is 55.26%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Ahli Doha
Qatar QSL
03.04.26	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Sailiya	2:2 ✺
18.03.26	Al-Gharafa - Al-Ahli Doha	1:4 ✺
13.03.26	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Arabi Doha	1:1 ✺
27.02.26	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Shahania	1:2 ✺
22.02.26	Al-Rayyan - Al-Ahli Doha	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 TWTLL
- Al Duhail
Qatar QSL
04.04.26	Al Duhail - Al-Gharafa	3:2 ✺
17.03.26	Al-Shamal - Al Duhail	1:3 ✺
12.03.26	Al-Sailiya - Al Duhail	0:4 ✺
26.02.26	Al Duhail - Al-Sadd	1:3 ✺
21.02.26	Al Duhail - Al-Arabi Doha	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Qatar QSL
21.11.25	Al Duhail - Al-Ahli Doha	2:3
Qatar QSL Cup
02.09.25	Al-Ahli Doha - Al Duhail	0:0
Qatar QSL
08.03.25	Al Duhail - Al-Ahli Doha	4:2
19.10.24	Al-Ahli Doha - Al Duhail	0:1
Qatar QSL Cup
07.09.24	Al-Ahli Doha - Al Duhail	0:2
Qatar QFA Cup
04.03.24	Al Duhail - Al-Ahli Doha	7:2
Qatar QSL
21.12.23	Al Duhail - Al-Ahli Doha	3:5

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