Match Info

PERU: LIGA 2 - ROUND 8

Date: 31 May 2023, Wednesday


	Alfonso Ugarte de Puno		Pirata

	1	X	2
	2.8	4.33	1.88
	3	4.1	1.9
	2.52	4.02	2.03
	2.62	4.5	1.95
	3.18	3.85	1.95
	1.97	4	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↑ (1.67)	4.13 ↑ (3.42)	2.09 ↓ (5.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alfonso Ugarte de Puno
34.1%

Draw
22.1%

Pirata
43.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.2%

26.9%

17.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.3%

26.5%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alfonso Ugarte de Puno has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-21.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alfonso Ugarte de Puno's form might have worsened.

Pirata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+25.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Pirata's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alfonso Ugarte de Puno than the current prediction. (+20.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alfonso Ugarte de Puno, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pirata than the current prediction. (-25.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pirata, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.8%	3.5%	87.7%

Alfonso Ugarte de Puno - Pirata Predictions

Users Predictions: 57 users predict this event. Alfonso Ugarte will win (votes: 5 - 8.8%). Pirata will win (votes: 50 - 87.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 3.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pirata: 79.2% – 96.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Nolasco J. (G) 7. Aguirre L. 4. Coronado S. 11. Cuero J. 8. Lara F. 27. Paladines B. 20. Paye E. (C) 10. Quiroz A. 2. Talavera I. 19. Timana H. 13. Vernal G.	33. Rojas M. (G) 8. Alva P. 4. Leon F. 3. Leyva J. 10. Lopez D. 13. Quevedo P. 19. Rey I. 77. Rigazzi G. 7. Sanguinetti F. 22. Sebben M. (C) 18. Villalobos J.
Substitutes
23. Castellanos G. (G) 28. Cotrina J. 16. Davila C. 6. Garrafa Tapia I. A. 77. Palomino K. 5. Safra J. 32. Suclupe M.	20. Barrantes D. 9. Calero A. 14. Colchado L. 11. Lozano T. 5. Peralta M. 21. Vento J. (G)

Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 9 and 8).

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

In this match Alfonso Ugarte is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Alfonso Ugarte won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Alfonso Ugarte won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alfonso Ugarte de Puno
Peruvian Liga 2
24.05.23	Unión Huaral - Alfonso Ugarte de Puno	1:1 ✺
18.05.23	Alfonso Ugarte de Puno - Comerciantes Belén	2:0 ✺
13.05.23	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Alfonso Ugarte de Puno	1:1 ✺
08.05.23	Alfonso Ugarte de Puno - Los Chankas	2:2 ✺
30.04.23	Comerciantes Unidos - Alfonso Ugarte de Puno	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 TWTTL
- Pirata FC
Peruvian Liga 2
25.05.23	Pirata - Ayacucho	2:0 ✺
18.05.23	Carlos Stein - Pirata	0:2 ✺
13.05.23	Pirata - Universidad San Martín	0:2 ✺
09.05.23	Pirata - Juan Aurich	1:1 ✺
03.05.23	Unión Huaral - Pirata	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 WWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 2
07.08.22	Alfonso Ugarte de Puno - Pirata	2:1
07.05.22	Pirata - Alfonso Ugarte de Puno	0:1

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