Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 4

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Mirador (Algeciras)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Algeciras		Sabadell

	1	X	2
	2.75	2.55	2.75
	2.78	2.92	2.62
	2.78	3.05	2.73
	2.72	3.02	2.56
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↑ (2.33)	2.89 ↑ (2.74)	2.67 ↓ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Algeciras
33.4%

Draw
32%

Sabadell
34.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.9%

33%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.8%

34.6%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Algeciras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Algeciras's form might have worsened.

Sabadell has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sabadell's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Algeciras than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Algeciras, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sabadell than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sabadell, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Algeciras - Sabadell Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Algeciras (2.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0, 1st Half - Sabadell (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Algeciras (votes: 1 - 50%). Sabadell (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Casado S. (G) 3. Marquez J. 15. Ruiz V. 11. Sanchez T. 6. Mayorga A. 21. Garcia J. 24. Castro O. 8. Turrillo I. (C) 10. Garrido D. 19. Obeng I. 7. Rastrojo J.	1. Fuoli D. (G) 5. Arthur 7. Ripoll T. 15. Lazaro Cervera J. C. 14. Astals D. 17. Coscia A. 20. Orriols Cerarols A. 22. Liameed Q. 9. Rodri 23. Priego J. 19. Lopez J.
Substitutes
22. Adot Barandiaran P. A. 2. Arauz C. 17. Aviles J. 4. Coch A. 16. Gomez A. 9. Gonzaga M. 1. Moreno I. (G) 27. Recagno D. 23. Riley J.	2. Aleman C. 8. Cortes S. 27. Estebe L. 4. Garcia C. 11. Martinez R. 13. Ortega J. (G) 18. Ortega J. 10. Ramirez Carrasco M. A. 21. Sergi 29. Utges J. 32. Vallina M. (G) 31. Zamora A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, Priego J. ⚽,
30', Mayorga A. 🟨,
31', 0 - 2, Rodri ⚽,
34', Coscia A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Coscia A. ↓, Sergi ↑,
53', Lazaro Cervera J. C. 🟨,
65', 🟨,
66', 1 - 2, Garcia J. (Pen),
67', Lopez J. ↓, Cortes S. ↑,
67', Ripoll T. ↓, Ramirez Carrasco M. A. ↑,
74', Garrido D. ↓, Adot Barandiaran P. A. ↑,
76', Cortes S. 🟨,
78', Gonzaga M. 🟨,
80', Castro O. ↓, Riley J. ↑,
82', Rodri ↓, Utges J. ↑,
83', 🟨,
83', Lazaro Cervera J. C. 🟨,
84', Adot Barandiaran P. A. 🟨,
85', Priego J. ↓, Garcia C. ↑,
87', Cortes S. 🟨,
90+6', Ruiz V. ↓, Aviles J. ↑,
90+9', Adot Barandiaran P. A. 🟨,
90+16', Turrillo I. 🟨,

Preview

Algeciras has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Sabadell may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Algeciras has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Algeciras won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.5:0).

Including home match between the teams, Algeciras won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Algeciras CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
12.09.25	Hércules - Algeciras	0:1 ✺
07.09.25	Algeciras - Marbella	0:0 ✺
29.08.25	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Algeciras	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
14.08.25	Atlético Sanluqueño - Algeciras	0:0 ✺
02.08.25	Atlético Malagueño - Algeciras	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WTLTT
- Sabadell FC
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
07.09.25	Atlético Sanluqueño - Sabadell	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Sabadell - Eldense	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
23.08.25	Sabadell - Ibiza	1:1 ✺
30.07.25	Sabadell - LHospitalet	2:0 ✺
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
01.06.25	UCAM Murcia - Sabadell	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 TTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
28.05.22	Sabadell - Algeciras	0:1
25.09.21	Algeciras - Sabadell	0:0

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