Match Info

Southern League Premier Central - Round 11

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Alvechurch		Bury Town

	1	X	2
	2.00	3.20	3.25
	2.00	3.10	3.30
	2.03	3.34	3.33
	2.09	3.39	3.37	Watch
	2.01	3.30	3.25
	2.02	3.22	3.31
	2.03	3.20	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.28)	3.25 ↓ (3.43)	3.31 ↑ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alvechurch
44.7%

Draw
27.9%

Bury Town
27.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39.6%

26.3%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.8%

26.2%

34%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alvechurch has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alvechurch's performance.

Bury Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bury Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alvechurch than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bury Town than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bury Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Alvechurch - Bury Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
78', 0 - 1, Hughes T. ⚽,

Preview

One of the standout fixtures of the round, featuring two top-tier sides (ranked 4th in the Promotion - Southern League Premier Central Playoffs - Quarter - finals and 2nd in the Promotion - Southern League Premier Central Playoffs - Semi - finals).

Both teams look competitive and well-prepared heading into this encounter.

Bury Town may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Alvechurch holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Alvechurch has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 2:3 (averaging 1:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Alvechurch against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 1:3 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Bury Town	14	10	1	3	24:20	4	31
7	Alvechurch	13	6	5	2	24:12	12	23

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alvechurch FC
English FA Cup
03.10.26	Cambridge City - Alvechurch	1:2 ✺
English Southern League Central Division
29.09.26	Alvechurch - Stourbridge	0:0 ✺
22.09.26	Anstey Nomads - Alvechurch	2:2 ✺
12.09.26	Alvechurch - Stamford	4:0 ✺
31.08.26	Rushall Olympic - Alvechurch	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WTTWW
- Bury Town
English FA Cup
06.10.26	Spalding United - Bury Town	4:0 ✺
03.10.26	Bury Town - Spalding United	1:1 ✺
English Southern League Central Division
29.09.26	Bishops Stortford - Bury Town	1:2 ✺
22.09.26	Bury Town - Hitchin Town	1:0 ✺
English FA Cup
19.09.26	Gorleston - Bury Town	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League Central Division
24.01.26	Alvechurch - Bury Town	1:3
20.09.25	Bury Town - Alvechurch	0:1

Alvechurch - Bury Town