Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D - Round 15

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: FC Alverca Sports Complex (Alverca do Ribatejo)


	Alverca B		Vasco da Gama Vidigueira

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.7	5.3
	1.56	3.77	5.36	Watch
	1.53	3.5	5
	1.55	3.87	5.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.54)	3.71 ↓ (3.72)	5.33 ↓ (5.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alverca B
58.6%

Draw
24.4%

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
17%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59%

24.4%

16.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.3%

23.9%

16.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alverca B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Vasco da Gama Vidigueira has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alverca B than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vasco da Gama Vidigueira than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

Alverca B - Vasco da Gama Vidigueira Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
59', 2 - 0, ⚽,
72', 3 - 0, ⚽,
77', 4 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 3 and 13 in the zone Relegation).

Alverca B is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Vasco da Gama has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Alverca B is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Alverca B won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alverca B
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
10.01.26	Moncarapachense - Alverca B	3:2 ✺
21.12.25	Comércio e Indústria - Alverca B	2:2 ✺
14.12.25	Alverca B - Serpa	2:1 ✺
07.12.25	Alcochetense - Alverca B	1:2 ✺
29.11.25	Alverca B - Oriental	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LTWWW
- Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
10.01.26	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira - Elvas	0:1 ✺
21.12.25	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira - Juventude de Évora	0:0 ✺
13.12.25	Louletano - Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	0:0 ✺
06.12.25	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira - Sintrense	2:1 ✺
29.11.25	Portimonense B - Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.2 LTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
17.08.25	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira - Alverca B	2:2

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