Match Info

Date: 22 May 2022, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Aprilia		Carbonia

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.2	2.7
	2.75	3.15	2.3
	2.12	3.25	3.01
	2.38	3.2	2.5
	2.28	3.78	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↑ (1.74)	3.32 ↓ (3.48)	2.62 ↓ (4.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aprilia
38.3%

Draw
27.2%

Carbonia
34.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

52.1%

26%

21.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.7%

25.2%

21.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aprilia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aprilia's form might have worsened.

Carbonia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Carbonia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aprilia than the current prediction. (+15.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aprilia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carbonia than the current prediction. (-13.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Carbonia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	10%	60%

Aprilia - Carbonia Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Aprilia will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Carbonia will win (votes: 6 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Carbonia: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 7 and 17 in the zone Relegation).

Aprilia is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Carbonia is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Aprilia will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Aprilia won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aprilia
Italian Serie D - Group G
18.05.22	Nuova Florida - Aprilia	2:1 ✺
15.05.22	Aprilia - Sassari Torres	0:3 ✺
24.04.22	Arzachena - Aprilia	0:1 ✺
14.04.22	Aprilia - Cassino	1:1 ✺
09.04.22	Ostia Mare - Aprilia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLWTL
- Carbonia Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group G
18.05.22	Carbonia - Vis Artena	2:0 ✺
15.05.22	Carbonia - Muravera	1:3 ✺
24.04.22	Real Monterotondo - Carbonia	2:2 ✺
14.04.22	Carbonia - Arzachena	1:1 ✺
10.04.22	Nuova Florida - Carbonia	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 WLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group G
09.03.22	Carbonia - Aprilia	0:1

Aprilia - Carbonia