Match Info

Stars League - Round 12

Date: 13 January 2026, Tuesday

Location: Franso Hariri Stadium (Arbil)


	Arbil		Duhok

	1	X	2
	1.98	2.88	3.9
	2.09	2.72	4.05	Watch
	2.05	2.7	3.75
	2.01	2.76	4.16	Watch
	2.08	2.54	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↑ (1.84)	2.72 ↓ (3.1)	4.01 ↓ (4.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arbil
44.3%

Draw
33.2%

Duhok
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.8%

29.5%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.1%

30.8%

19.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arbil has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arbil's form might have worsened.

Duhok has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arbil than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arbil, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Duhok than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Arbil - Duhok Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Arbil will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
48', 1 - 0, Qabil M. ⚽,
86', 1 - 1, Suda Y. ⚽,
89', 2 - 1, Luqman G. ⚽,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: ) and 9).

Arbil is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Duhok is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Arbil is considered a favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arbil won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Arbil won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Erbil	8	5	2	1	12:3	9	17
9	Duhok	8	1	6	1	11:11	0	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arbil
Iraqi Premier League
08.01.26	Al Mosul - Arbil	0:2 ✺
04.01.26	Arbil - Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya	0:0 ✺
31.12.25	Arbil - Naft Maysan	1:0 ✺
22.12.25	Diyala - Arbil	1:1 ✺
22.11.25	Arbil - Al-Gharraf	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WTWTW
- Duhok
Iraqi Premier League
09.01.26	Duhok - Al-Minaa	1:0 ✺
04.01.26	Duhok - Amanat Baghdad	1:0 ✺
30.12.25	Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya - Duhok	0:2 ✺
23.12.25	Duhok - Najaf	1:0 ✺
21.11.25	Naft Maysan - Duhok	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Iraqi Premier League
25.06.25	Arbil - Duhok	2:1
27.09.24	Duhok - Arbil	0:1
23.06.24	Duhok - Arbil	2:1
08.03.24	Arbil - Duhok	1:1
24.07.13	Arbil - Duhok	0:1

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