Match Info

ITALY: Serie D - Group B - Round 22

Date: 15 January 2025, Wednesday


	Arconatese		Folgore Caratese

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.3	1.8
	3.8	3.45	1.82
	3.66	3.56	1.87	Watch
	3.75	3.1	1.91
	3.82	3.36	1.85
	3.8	3.45	1.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.76 ↓ (5.22)	3.37 ↓ (3.79)	1.85 ↑ (1.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arconatese
24.1%

Draw
26.9%

Folgore Caratese
49%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.4%

24%

58.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.5%

24.1%

58.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arconatese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Arconatese's performance.

Folgore Caratese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Folgore Caratese might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arconatese than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Arconatese that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Folgore Caratese than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Folgore Caratese could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Arconatese - Folgore Caratese Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
59', 0 - 1, Forchignone M. ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group B (Play Offs: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Arconatese won 3.

Arconatese is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Folgore Caratese in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Arconatese could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Folgore Caratese is a favorite.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Arconatese won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 13:15 (average 1.1:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Arconatese won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7:8 (average 1.4:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- GS Arconatese
Italian Serie D - Group B
11.01.25	Varesina - Arconatese	1:2 ✺
05.01.25	Arconatese - SantAngelo	0:1 ✺
22.12.24	Arconatese - Breno	0:0 ✺
15.12.24	Chievo - Arconatese	2:0 ✺
01.12.24	Cavenago Fanfulla - Arconatese	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.4 WLTLL
- US Folgore Caratese ASD
Italian Serie D - Group B
05.01.25	Magenta - Folgore Caratese	0:4 ✺
21.12.24	Vigasio - Folgore Caratese	0:1 ✺
15.12.24	Folgore Caratese - Castellanzese	5:1 ✺
01.12.24	Folgore Caratese - Club Milano	2:1 ✺
17.11.24	Folgore Caratese - Pro Sesto	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group B
18.09.24	Folgore Caratese - Arconatese	1:0
03.12.23	Folgore Caratese - Arconatese	0:1
16.04.23	Folgore Caratese - Arconatese	1:3
04.12.22	Arconatese - Folgore Caratese	1:1
30.03.22	Folgore Caratese - Arconatese	0:1
14.11.21	Arconatese - Folgore Caratese	3:1
Italian Serie D - Group A
23.05.21	Folgore Caratese - Arconatese	2:0

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