Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 16 - Round 9

Date: 2 November 2025, Sunday


	Arnedo		La Calzada

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.55	4.35
	1.65	3.58	4.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↑ (1.57)	3.57 ↓ (3.74)	4.49 ↓ (5.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 10.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arnedo
54.6%

Draw
25.3%

La Calzada
20.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.8%

24.3%

17.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.3%

22.9%

16.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arnedo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

La Calzada has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arnedo than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arnedo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for La Calzada than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Arnedo - La Calzada Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90+8', 1 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 16 (Play Offs: ) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arnedo won 1.

In recent matches, Arnedo has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

La Calzada is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Arnedo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Arnedo is the team to beat.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Arnedo won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 0.9:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Arnedo won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:5. (average 0.8:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Arnedo
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
26.10.25	Varea - Arnedo	1:2 ✺
18.10.25	Arnedo - Peña Balsamaiso	5:0 ✺
12.10.25	Autol - Arnedo	0:3 ✺
05.10.25	Arnedo - Berceo	0:1 ✺
28.09.25	UD Logroñés Promesas - Arnedo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWWLL
- CDFC La Calzada
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
25.10.25	La Calzada - San Marcial	0:1 ✺
19.10.25	Yagüe - La Calzada	2:1 ✺
12.10.25	Varea - La Calzada	0:0 ✺
05.10.25	La Calzada - Peña Balsamaiso	2:2 ✺
28.09.25	Autol - La Calzada	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 16
17.04.25	Arnedo - La Calzada	1:1
06.12.24	La Calzada - Arnedo	1:0
16.12.23	Arnedo - La Calzada	0:4
19.03.22	Arnedo - La Calzada	1:0
07.11.21	La Calzada - Arnedo	1:0
07.03.21	Arnedo - La Calzada	1:0
05.12.20	La Calzada - Arnedo	1:3

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