Match Info

RUSSIA: FNL 2 - DIVISION B - GROUP 3 - ROUND 11

Date: 1 October 2023, Sunday


	Arsenal 2 Tula		Kaluga

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.82	1.66
	3.85	3.5	1.74
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.03 ↑ (3.08)	3.66 ↑ (3.41)	1.7 ↓ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 10.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arsenal 2 Tula
22.4%

Draw
24.6%

Kaluga
53%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.4%

26.5%

44%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.2%

27.6%

45.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arsenal 2 Tula has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arsenal 2 Tula's form might have worsened.

Kaluga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Kaluga's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal 2 Tula than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arsenal 2 Tula, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kaluga than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kaluga, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Preview

The great teams are gonna meet at this game. The most expected match between two teams from the very top of the group (ranked 3 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ FNL 2 ~ Division A Silver (Spring Season: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Arsenal 2 Tula won 2.

Arsenal 2 Tula in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Kaluga is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Kaluga could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Kaluga will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Arsenal 2 Tula won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 7-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Arsenal 2 Tula won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arsenal 2 Tula
Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 3
22.09.23	Khimki 2 - Arsenal 2 Tula	1:3 ✺
17.09.23	Arsenal 2 Tula - SKA Khabarovsk 2	3:1 ✺
27.08.23	Kompozit Pavlovsky Posad - Arsenal 2 Tula	1:1 ✺
13.08.23	Sakhalin - Arsenal 2 Tula	0:1 ✺
06.08.23	Arsenal 2 Tula - Spartak Tambov	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WWTWW
- FC Kaluga
Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 3
25.09.23	Kaluga - Sakhalinets Moscow	1:1 ✺
17.09.23	Strogino Moskva - Kaluga	0:5 ✺
Russian Cup
13.09.23	Dynamo Bryansk - Kaluga	1:0 penalties ✺
Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 3
04.09.23	Ryazan - Kaluga	0:1 ✺
27.08.23	Kaluga - Krasnoye Znamya	7:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL 2 Group 3
31.10.21	Kaluga - Arsenal 2 Tula	1:1
29.08.21	Arsenal 2 Tula - Kaluga	1:0
Russian PFL Center
23.04.17	Arsenal 2 Tula - Kaluga	2:0
15.10.16	Kaluga - Arsenal 2 Tula	1:0
30.05.16	Arsenal 2 Tula - Kaluga	0:1
20.07.15	Kaluga - Arsenal 2 Tula	2:1
30.05.15	Arsenal 2 Tula - Kaluga	1:2

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