Match Info

Champions League Women - Play Offs - Final

Date: 24 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio José Alvalade (Lisbon)

Referee: Martincic I. (Cro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Max, TNT Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	Fox Sports MORE, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Belgium	DAZN 1
Brazil	DAZN Brasil
Canada	DAZN Canada
France	DAZN France, Free, L'Equipe, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	MAX, TNT Sports
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Norway	VG+
Poland	Polsat Sport 2, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	DAZN 1
Spain	3Cat, DAZN 2 Bar Espana, DAZN 2 Espana, DAZN Espana, Max, M+ Ellas V, Movistar+ Lite, Movistar Plus+, RTVE Play, TV3, TV3, TVE La 1
Sweden	Discovery+, SVT 2, SVT Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	DAZN
United-kingdom	BBC Radio 5 Live, DAZN 1 UK, Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 1
Usa	DAZN USA


	Arsenal LFC		Barcelona

	1	X	2
	9.5	7	1.22
	10	6.5	1.21
	12	6.5	1.2
	10	6.82	1.22
	10.13	7.06	1.24	Watch
	10	5.5	1.22
	9.11	6.98	1.23
	12	6.5	1.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	10.34 ↑ (7.63)	6.61 ↑ (5.2)	1.22 ↓ (1.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arsenal LFC
9%

Draw
14.2%

Barcelona
76.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.2%

17.9%

69.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.8%

17.3%

72.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arsenal LFC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Barcelona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Barcelona's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arsenal LFC than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barcelona than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Arsenal LFC - Barcelona Predictions

Users Predictions: Barcelona will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
14. van Domselaar D. (G) 2. Fox E. 6. Williamson L. 7. Catley S. 11. McCabe K. 10. Little K. (C) 12. Leonhardsen-Maanum F. 8. Caldentey M. 18. Kelly C. 23. Russo A. 19. Foord C.	13. Coll C. (G) 22. Batlle O. 2. Paredes I. 4. Leon M. 16. Rolfo F. 14. Bonmati A. 12. Guijarro P. 11. Putellas A. (C) 10. Graham C. 17. Pajor E. 9. Pina C.
Substitutes
25. Blackstenius S. 5. Codina L. 32. Cooney-Cross K. 17. Hurtig L. 28. Ilestedt A. 9. Mead B. 22. Nighswonger J. 21. Pelova V. 13. Walti L. 40. Williams N. (G) 3. Wubben-Moy C. 1. Zinsberger M. (G)	24. Brugts E. 28. Cano A. 23. Engen I. 5. Fernandez J. 1. Font G. (G) 19. Lopez V. 7. Paralluelo S. 35. Pujols J. 25. Roebuck E. (G) 30. Schertenleib S. 34. Serrajordi C. 8. Torrejon M.
Coaches
Slegers R.	Romeu P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', Paredes I. 🟨,
62', Pina C. ↓, Paralluelo S. ↑,
65', Kelly C. 🟨,
67', Leonhardsen-Maanum F. ↓, Blackstenius S. ↑,
68', Kelly C. ↓, Mead B. ↑,
75', 1 - 0, Blackstenius S. ⚽, Mead B. (A),
78', Rolfo F. ↓, Brugts E. ↑,
78', Leon M. ↓, Engen I. ↑,
86', Foord C. ↓, Hurtig L. ↑,
88', Paralluelo S. 🟨,
90+1', Russo A. ↓, Wubben-Moy C. ↑,

Preview

Neutral location - Estádio José Alvalade.

Arsenal LFC has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Barcelona is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Arsenal LFC may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Barcelona is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Arsenal LFC won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:13. (average 1:4.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Arsenal LFC won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:9. (average 1:4.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arsenal LFC
English WSL
10.05.25	Arsenal LFC - Manchester United	4:3 ✺
05.05.25	Brighton & Hove Albion - Arsenal LFC	4:2 ✺
30.04.25	Aston Villa - Arsenal LFC	5:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League Women
27.04.25	OL Lyonnes - Arsenal LFC	1:4 ✺
19.04.25	Arsenal LFC - OL Lyonnes	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WLLWL
- FC Barcelona Women
Spanish Liga F Women
18.05.25	Barcelona - Athletic Bilbao	6:0 ✺
11.05.25	Betis - Barcelona	0:9 ✺
04.05.25	Barcelona - Deportivo A Coruña	4:0 ✺
01.05.25	Badalona - Barcelona	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League Women
27.04.25	Chelsea - Barcelona	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League Women
09.12.21	Arsenal LFC - Barcelona	0:4
05.10.21	Barcelona - Arsenal LFC	4:1
Club Friendly Women
14.08.19	Arsenal LFC - Barcelona	2:5

Arsenal LFC - Barcelona: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide