Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 7

Date: 28 August 2026, Friday


	Ashton United		Gainsborough Trinity

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.25	2.45
	2.28	3.40	2.48
	2.50	3.45	2.49
	2.53	3.57	2.53	Watch
	2.45	3.40	2.45
	2.45	3.38	2.45
	2.48	3.40	2.49
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↑ (2.14)	3.41 ↑ (3.4)	2.48 ↓ (2.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Ashton United
36.9%

Draw
26.5%

Gainsborough Trinity
36.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.5%

26.8%

30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

26.2%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ashton United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ashton United's form might have worsened.

Gainsborough Trinity has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gainsborough Trinity's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ashton United than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ashton United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gainsborough Trinity than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gainsborough Trinity, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ashton United - Gainsborough Trinity Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, Butroid L. ⚽,
35', 0 - 2, Butroid L. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90', 1 - 2, Johnson J. ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Premier Division (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Premier Division (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ashton won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Ashton won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 19:16. (average 1.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Ashton won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.7:1.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Gainsborough	10	5	1	4	20:14	6	16
14	Ashton Utd	10	3	3	4	12:11	1	12

Last Results with these Odds

Gainsborough Trinity - the odds 2.96 are the expected chance of winning is 30.73%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ashton United
English NPL Premier Division
25.08.26	Ashton United - Ilkeston	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Emley - Ashton United	1:1 ✺
18.08.26	Ashton United - Whitby Town	2:0 ✺
15.08.26	Bamber Bridge - Ashton United	1:0 ✺
11.08.26	Stockton Town - Ashton United	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 TTWLW
- Gainsborough Trinity
English NPL Premier Division
25.08.26	Quorn - Gainsborough Trinity	2:2 ✺
22.08.26	Gainsborough Trinity - Bury	0:1 ✺
18.08.26	Gainsborough Trinity - Stockton Town	4:1 ✺
15.08.26	United of Manchester - Gainsborough Trinity	0:3 ✺
11.08.26	Alfreton Town - Gainsborough Trinity	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
03.02.26	Ashton United - Gainsborough Trinity	0:3
09.08.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Ashton United	0:3
12.04.25	Ashton United - Gainsborough Trinity	0:2
17.08.24	Gainsborough Trinity - Ashton United	0:1
16.03.24	Ashton United - Gainsborough Trinity	2:0
24.10.23	Gainsborough Trinity - Ashton United	2:2
25.02.23	Ashton United - Gainsborough Trinity	2:3

Upcoming Matches