Match Info

EGYPT: PREMIER LEAGUE - ROUND 23

Date: 4 April 2023, Tuesday

Location: Aswan Stadium (Aswan)


	Aswan		Smouha

	1	X	2
	2.8	2.8	2.4
	3.1	2.85	2.35
	3.09	2.87	2.69
	3	2.7	2.5
	3.08	2.88	2.58	Watch
	2.95	2.95	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	3 ↑ (2.73)	2.84 ↓ (2.93)	2.51 ↓ (2.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aswan
30.7%

Draw
32.5%

Smouha
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

31.7%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

30.5%

35.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aswan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Smouha has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aswan than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Smouha than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	46.2%	46.2%

Aswan - Smouha Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Aswan will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). Smouha will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 46.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Smouha: 19.1% – 73.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 12 and 11).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Aswan won 1.

Aswan is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Smouha is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Smouha could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Aswan won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 8-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Aswan won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aswan SC
Egyptian Premier League
31.03.23	Pharco - Aswan	0:0 ✺
12.03.23	Aswan - Modern Sport	1:2 ✺
27.02.23	Ghazl El Mahalla - Aswan	1:2 ✺
21.02.23	Aswan - Al Ahly Cairo	0:3 ✺
09.02.23	Al-Ittihad Alexandria - Aswan	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 TLWLL
- Smouha SC
Egyptian Premier League
30.03.23	Smouha - Ismaily	1:3 ✺
Egyptian League Cup
21.03.23	Ceramica Cleopatra - Smouha	2:1 penalties ✺
Egyptian Premier League
11.03.23	El Mokawloon El Arab - Smouha	0:1 ✺
26.02.23	Smouha - Haras El-Hodood	3:0 ✺
19.02.23	National Bank of Egypt - Smouha	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Egyptian Premier League
08.12.22	Smouha - Aswan	1:2
24.08.21	Aswan - Smouha	1:3
12.03.21	Smouha - Aswan	5:0
05.09.20	Aswan - Smouha	3:3
15.12.19	Smouha - Aswan	1:0
07.05.17	Aswan - Smouha	2:0
26.11.16	Smouha - Aswan	1:0

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