Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 8 - Round 35

Date: 26 April 2025, Saturday


	Atlético Astorga		Santa Marta Tormes

	1	X	2
	1.32	4.5	7.75
	1.36	4.3	7.4
	1.31	4.63	9.6
	1.31	4.2	10.2
	1.36	4.3	7.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↑ (1.32)	4.39 ↑ (4.28)	8.47 ↓ (9.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Astorga
68.4%

Draw
20.8%

Santa Marta Tormes
10.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.8%

21.3%

9.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.3%

17.4%

12.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Astorga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Santa Marta Tormes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Astorga than the current prediction. (-12.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlético Astorga that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Marta Tormes than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Atlético Astorga - Santa Marta Tormes Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
9', 0 - 1, Chopi ⚽,
15', 1 - 1, Mas C. ⚽,
23', 1 - 2, Cascon V. ⚽,
45+2', 2 - 2, Vales I. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
68', 3 - 2, Alvarez D. ⚽,
89', 4 - 2, Alvarez J. ⚽,

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion and 10).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Atlético Astorga won 3.

Recent matches Atlético Astorga is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Santa Marta Tormes is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Atlético Astorga could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Atlético Astorga is certain favorite.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Atlético Astorga won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 16:9 (average 1.8:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Atlético Astorga won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9:4 (average 1.8:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Astorga
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 8
20.04.25	Villaralbo - Atlético Astorga	0:0 ✺
17.04.25	Atlético Astorga - Briviesca	3:0 ✺
12.04.25	Mojados - Atlético Astorga	2:0 ✺
05.04.25	Atlético Astorga - Burgos Promesas	1:1 ✺
22.03.25	Atlético Astorga - Laguna de Tenerife	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 TWLTW
- UD Santa Marta Tormes
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 8
20.04.25	Santa Marta Tormes - Atlético Palencia	2:0 ✺
17.04.25	Becerril - Santa Marta Tormes	1:2 ✺
05.04.25	Santa Marta Tormes - Villaralbo	1:0 ✺
29.03.25	Briviesca - Santa Marta Tormes	1:0 ✺
22.03.25	Santa Marta Tormes - Mojados	7:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 8
14.12.24	Santa Marta Tormes - Atlético Astorga	2:1
03.03.24	Santa Marta Tormes - Atlético Astorga	0:2
14.10.23	Atlético Astorga - Santa Marta Tormes	0:1
05.02.23	Santa Marta Tormes - Atlético Astorga	2:3
01.10.22	Atlético Astorga - Santa Marta Tormes	4:0
26.02.22	Atlético Astorga - Santa Marta Tormes	2:1
16.10.21	Santa Marta Tormes - Atlético Astorga	1:1

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