Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 5

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Centro Deportivo Wanda Alcalá de Henares (Madrid)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Atlético Madrid B		Ibiza

	1	X	2
	2.45	3	2.7
	2.52	3	2.72
	2.63	2.94	2.9
	1.01	1.00	1.00	Watch
	2.58	3.02	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↓ (2.66)	2.59 ↓ (3.05)	2.4 ↓ (2.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Madrid B
35.8%

Draw
30.9%

Ibiza
33.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

30%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.8%

30.3%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Madrid B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Ibiza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Madrid B than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ibiza than the current prediction. (+2%)

Atlético Madrid B - Ibiza Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Esquivel S. (G) 4. Bonar J. 16. Kostis I. 15. Puric A. 5. Martinez D. 6. Serrano J. 18. Bellotti M. 7. Luque I. 26. Monserrate J. 23. Ortiz A. 9. Janneh O.	1. Juan Ramirez R. (G) 17. Medina U. 18. Indias I. 5. Gonzalez Nacho 3. Albert J. 15. Glazer T. 6. del Pozo D. 8. del Olmo I. 14. Fede 7. Bebe 20. El Ftouhi S.
Substitutes
20. Barboza M. 8. Castillo J. 19. Corral A. 1. de Luis M. (G) 22. Gimenez C. 11. Koke 30. Llorente M. 14. Morcillo J. 17. Rajado J. 12. Spina G.	9. Davo 2. Diez S. 21. Errahaly M. 10. Gallar A. 12. Garcia D. 23. Gomez E. 22. Joao Fersura 4. Monjonell E. 24. Muller S. 16. Pedreno M. 19. Sene J. 25. Torrelavid C. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Bellotti M. ⚽,
16', Ortiz A. 🟨,
19', 2 - 0, Ortiz A. ⚽,
32', Bellotti M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Fede ↓, Gomez E. ↑,
46', Indias I. ↓, Gallar A. ↑,
46', del Olmo I. ↓, Davo ↑,
50', Glazer T. 🟨,
50', 🟨,
53', Serrano J. 🟨,
62', Glazer T. ↓, Sene J. ↑,
72', Kostis I. ↓, Barboza M. ↑,
72', Serrano J. ↓, Morcillo J. ↑,
78', Medina U. ↓, Diez S. ↑,
79', Monserrate J. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
87', Ortiz A. ↓, Koke ↑,
87', Janneh O. ↓, Llorente M. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético Madrid B won 1.

Recent performances by Atlético Madrid B have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ibiza is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Atlético Madrid B may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Atlético Madrid B won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:6. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético Madrid B won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Ibiza - the odds 2.56 are the expected chance of winning is 35.69%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Madrid B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
20.09.25	Betis B - Atlético Madrid B	0:2 ✺
14.09.25	Atlético Madrid B - Real Murcia	1:1 ✺
05.09.25	Cartagena - Atlético Madrid B	3:2 ✺
01.09.25	Atlético Madrid B - Atlético Sanluqueño	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
24.08.25	CD Guadalajara - Atlético Madrid B	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WTLTW
- UD Ibiza
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
21.09.25	Ibiza - Antequera	1:1 ✺
13.09.25	Marbella - Ibiza	1:1 ✺
06.09.25	Ibiza - Hércules	2:1 ✺
30.08.25	Sevilla B - Ibiza	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
23.08.25	Sabadell - Ibiza	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 TTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
15.08.25	Atlético Madrid B - Ibiza	1:3
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
17.05.25	Atlético Madrid B - Ibiza	0:0
12.10.24	Ibiza - Atlético Madrid B	1:1
21.04.24	Ibiza - Atlético Madrid B	0:1
23.09.23	Atlético Madrid B - Ibiza	1:1
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
03.11.19	Ibiza - Atlético Madrid B	1:2

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