Match Info

Brasileiro Women - Round 6

Date: 30 March 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Joaquim Henrique Nogueira (Jacare) (Sete Lagoas)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	SporTV


	Atlético Mineiro		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	5.15	3.75	1.52
	5.77	3.66	1.6
	5.38	3.79	1.61
	4.8	3.7	1.53
	5.23	3.72	1.56
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.27 ↓ (6.08)	3.72 ↓ (4.43)	1.56 ↑ (1.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Mineiro
17.3%

Draw
24.5%

São Paulo
58.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15%

20.6%

64.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.5%

19.9%

66.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and São Paulo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that São Paulo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Maike (G) 25. Barraca 6. Diovanna 23. Hingredy 5. Ju Pacheco 7. Kelen 13. Lari Danielle 2. Nine 55. Pimenta 18. Ramos C. 27. Thalita	12. Carlinha (G) 7. Aline 33. Calazans L. 3. Carol Gil 9. Gadu 72. Mylena Carioca 26. Preininger V. 28. Rafa Soares 95. Robinha 24. Soraya 4. Tayla
Substitutes
17. Amalia 9. Anny Maraba 11. Day 12. Iasmin Paixao (G) 10. Isadora Freitas 28. Kaiuska 4. Karen Bender 20. Lari Sanchez 8. Laura Maria 3. Lopez Maldonado V. G. 33. Santos M. 26. Tay Belarmino	1. Anna Beatriz (G) 2. Bruna Calderan 6. Clara 19. Crivelari 11. Isa 5. Karla Alves 16. Pereyra M. 8. Serrana 27. Vitorinha

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', Ju Pacheco 🟨,
38', 1 - 0, Pimenta ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Ramos C. ↓, Karen Bender ↑,
46', Pimenta ↓, Anny Maraba ↑,
46', Soraya ↓, Crivelari ↑,
46', Preininger V. ↓, Karla Alves ↑,
46', Calazans L. ↓, Bruna Calderan ↑,
46', Thalita ↓, Amalia ↑,
58', 1 - 1, Tayla ⚽,
62', Ju Pacheco ↓, Laura Maria ↑,
64', 1 - 2, Mylena Carioca ⚽,
73', Lari Danielle 🟨,
77', Barraca 🟨,
78', Kelen ↓, Day ↑,
85', Mylena Carioca ↓, Serrana ↑,
88', Gadu ↓, Isa ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Brasileiro Women (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Atlético MG is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

São Paulo is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Atlético MG may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, São Paulo is a strong favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Atlético MG won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:10. (average 0.7:3.3).

Including home match between the teams, Atlético MG won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Mineiro Women
Brasileiro Women
27.03.26	Vitória Salvador - Atlético Mineiro	0:3 ✺
21.03.26	Atlético Mineiro - Internacional	0:1 ✺
14.03.26	Cruzeiro - Atlético Mineiro	3:1 ✺
22.02.26	Juventude - Atlético Mineiro	0:0 ✺
13.02.26	Atlético Mineiro - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 WLLTL
- São Paulo FC Women
Brasileiro Women
27.03.26	São Paulo - Palmeiras	3:0 ✺
23.03.26	Fluminense - São Paulo	0:0 ✺
14.03.26	São Paulo - Ferroviária	0:1 ✺
23.02.26	São Paulo - Bahia	2:1 ✺
16.02.26	Internacional - São Paulo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brasileiro Women
05.05.24	São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro	6:0
14.04.23	Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo	1:0
30.05.22	São Paulo - Atlético Mineiro	4:1

Atlético Mineiro - São Paulo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide