Match Info

Copa do Brasil Women - Quarter-finals

Date: 21 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio do Caninde (Sao Paulo) 🌤️ ...


	São Paulo		Bahia

	1	X	2
	1.51	3.80	5.25
	1.48	4.10	5.00
	1.49	3.98	5.26
	1.54	4	5.2
	1.47	3.90	5.20
	1.47	3.94	5.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.51)	3.95 (3.95)	5.27 ↑ (5.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Paulo
60.2%

Draw
22.7%

Bahia
17.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

59.5%

22.7%

17.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.7%

22.3%

17.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Bahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bahia than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

São Paulo - Bahia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Carlinha (G) 23. Bia Menezes 3. Carol Gil 11. Isa 5. Karla Alves 18. Kesia Sena 72. Mylena Carioca 28. Rafa Soares 95. Robinha 8. Serrana 4. Tayla	12. Yanne (G) 28. Cassia 5. Gomez A. (C) 97. Isa Fernandes 96. Ju Oliveira 13. Mila Santos 27. Raquel 17. Roqueline 7. Rosa W. 10. Sena Taty 64. Tchula
Substitutes
7. Aline 1. Anna Beatriz (G) 15. Barbosa C. 33. Calazans L. 10. Camilinha 6. Clara 19. Crivelari 9. Gadu 16. Pereyra M. 26. Preininger V. 22. Ravena 99. Vi Amaral	3. Aila 6. Ana Julia 2. Dan 71. Eduarda Tosti 9. Gica 88. Helo 24. Julia Kerolyn (G) 19. Kamper Rodrigues M. 77. Suelen 70. Terra M. 8. Treyci 18. Vilma

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Sena Taty 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', 0 - 1, Cassia ⚽,
54', Robinha 🟨,
55', Isa ↓, Crivelari ↑,
56', Karla Alves ↓, Aline ↑,
56', Mylena Carioca ↓, Vi Amaral ↑,
65', Raquel 🟨,
66', Sena Taty ↓, Aila ↑,
66', Roqueline ↓, Dan ↑,
66', Carol Gil ↓, Clara ↑,
72', Raquel ↓, Terra M. ↑,
75', Rafa Soares ↓, Camilinha ↑,
78', Gomez A. 🟨,
84', Rosa W. ↓, Ana Julia ↑,
84', Gomez A. ↓, Suelen ↑,
86', Crivelari 🟨,
88', Ana Julia 🟨,
90+3', Yanne 🟨,
90+8', Dan 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 1-2.

São Paulo is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Bahia has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Bahia may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Bahia has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

Bookmakers give the edge to São Paulo for this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, São Paulo has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 9:7 (averaging 1.8:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for São Paulo against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 3:2 goals (averaging 1.5:1 per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC Women
Copa do Brasil Women
16.10.26	Bahia - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Brasileiro Women
03.10.26	São Paulo - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
26.09.26	Corinthians - São Paulo	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	São Paulo - Flamengo	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Flamengo - São Paulo	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 LTWWW
- EC Bahia Women
Copa do Brasil Women
16.10.26	Bahia - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Baiano Women
10.10.26	Bahia - Jacuipense	5:0 ✺
07.10.26	Bahia - Jacobina	2:2 ✺
Brasileiro Women
21.09.26	Corinthians - Bahia	1:0 ✺
15.09.26	Bahia - Corinthians	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil Women
16.10.26	Bahia - São Paulo	2:1
Brasileiro Women
23.02.26	São Paulo - Bahia	2:1
18.05.25	Bahia - São Paulo	1:2
25.02.23	São Paulo - Bahia	1:1
24.06.21	Bahia - São Paulo	2:3

São Paulo - Bahia