Match Info

SPAIN: Tercera RFEF - Group 8 - Round 18

Date: 5 January 2025, Sunday


	Atlético Palencia		Atlético Astorga

	1	X	2
	3.2	2.8	2.2
	3.25	2.9	2.23
	3.09	2.94	2.3
	3.25	2.9	2.23
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.2 ↓ (3.25)	2.89 ↓ (3)	2.24 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Palencia
28.3%

Draw
31.3%

Atlético Astorga
40.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.1%

30.4%

41.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

29.4%

42.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Palencia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Atlético Astorga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Palencia than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Astorga than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Atlético Palencia - Atlético Astorga Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
47', 1 - 1, Alvarez J. ⚽,
57', 2 - 1, ⚽,
61', 3 - 1, ⚽,
89', 🟥,
90+4', 3 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 6 and 1 in the zone Promotion).

Recent matches Atlético Palencia is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Atlético Astorga is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Atlético Astorga will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Atlético Palencia won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3:5 (average 0.6:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Atlético Palencia won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:1 (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Palencia
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 8
15.12.24	Becerril - Atlético Palencia	1:3 ✺
06.12.24	Atlético Palencia - Santa Marta Tormes	1:1 ✺
30.11.24	Villaralbo - Atlético Palencia	1:0 ✺
23.11.24	Atlético Palencia - Briviesca	2:0 ✺
16.11.24	Mojados - Atlético Palencia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WTLWL
- Atlético Astorga
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 8
21.12.24	Atlético Astorga - Becerril	3:0 ✺
14.12.24	Santa Marta Tormes - Atlético Astorga	2:1 ✺
07.12.24	Atlético Astorga - Villaralbo	3:1 ✺
30.11.24	Briviesca - Atlético Astorga	1:1 ✺
23.11.24	Atlético Astorga - Mojados	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 8
27.01.24	Atlético Palencia - Atlético Astorga	0:0
09.09.23	Atlético Astorga - Atlético Palencia	1:1
22.01.23	Atlético Palencia - Atlético Astorga	1:1
17.09.22	Atlético Astorga - Atlético Palencia	1:0
15.01.22	Atlético Astorga - Atlético Palencia	2:1

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