Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 8 - Round 12

Date: 23 November 2025, Sunday


	Atlético Palencia		Numancia B

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.15	8.5
	1.31	4.05	11.1
	1.45	3.7	7.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.45)	3.97 ↑ (3.7)	9 ↑ (7.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Palencia
66.9%

Draw
23%

Numancia B
10.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63%

24.7%

12.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.4%

23.4%

11.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Palencia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Numancia B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Palencia than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Numancia B than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Atlético Palencia - Numancia B Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', 1 - 0, Vallecillo D. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', 2 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 8 (Play Offs: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation).

Atlético Palencia is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Numancia B has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Numancia B may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Numancia B has had a series of home games.

In this match, Atlético Palencia is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Atlético Palencia won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:6. (average 2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético Palencia won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 2.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Palencia
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 8
16.11.25	Palencia CA - Atlético Palencia	1:2 ✺
08.11.25	Atlético Palencia - Villaralbo	0:0 ✺
26.10.25	Atlético Palencia - Unionistas B	2:1 ✺
19.10.25	Guijuelo - Atlético Palencia	2:1 ✺
12.10.25	Atlético Palencia - Leonesa B	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WTWLW
- Numancia B
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 8
15.11.25	Numancia B - Becerril	2:1 ✺
01.11.25	Numancia B - Bembibre	0:1 ✺
25.10.25	Santa Marta Tormes - Numancia B	1:0 ✺
18.10.25	Numancia B - La Virgen del Camino	0:1 ✺
27.09.25	Numancia B - Mirandés B	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 8
22.04.23	Atlético Palencia - Numancia B	3:2
08.01.23	Numancia B - Atlético Palencia	2:3
30.04.22	Numancia B - Atlético Palencia	2:0
18.12.21	Atlético Palencia - Numancia B	2:0

Atlético Palencia - Numancia B: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide