Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 5

Date: 28 August 2026, Friday

Location: Planet Pure Stadion (Lustenau)

Referee: Baumann M. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1, Sky Sport Austria 1
Germany	Laola1, Sky Go Germany
Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	OneFootball TV


	Austria Lustenau		Swarovski Tirol

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.6	3	Watch
	1.95	3.60	3.50
	2.15	3.4	3.05
	2.23	3.7	3.24
	2.04	3.7	3.41	Watch
	2.2	3.55	3.2
	2.14	3.72	3.26	Watch
	2.14	3.55	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.39)	3.6 ↑ (3.59)	3.22 ↑ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Austria Lustenau
44.5%

Draw
26.2%

Swarovski Tirol
29.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.6%

26.4%

34%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

26.9%

34.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Austria Lustenau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

Swarovski Tirol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Austria Lustenau than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Austria Lustenau that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swarovski Tirol than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Swarovski Tirol could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.3%	13.3%	13.3%

Austria Lustenau - Swarovski Tirol Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Austria Lustenau will win (votes: 11 - 73.3%). Swarovski Tirol will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Austria Lustenau: 50.9% – 95.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (2.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Bohm P. (G) 7. Gmeiner F. 15. Chukwu E. 29. Pertlwieser N. 3. Danilo Soares 8. Kacuri D. (C) 11. Weixelbraun D. 20. Afrifa L. 24. Diarra S. 17. Gashi A. 39. Verinac A.	1. Hamzic S. (G) 5. Murray D. 23. Boras M. (C) 3. Gugganig D. 28. Oswald M. 11. Satin M. 6. Striednig M. 18. Balic H. 36. Goiginger T. 17. Olakigbe M. 8. Baden Frederiksen N.
Substitutes
21. Anilson 14. Benjamin P. 19. Delaye S. 33. Flatz F. (G) 26. Ibertsberger L. 61. Ismailcebioglu H. 9. Jastremski L. 31. Maak M. 18. Voisine R.	15. Bambara M. 39. Bedianashvili G. 43. Celic N. 13. Eckmayr A. (G) 32. Gschosser R. 16. Hinterseer L. 27. Jaunegg D. 14. Kubatta D. 9. Ola-Adebomi A.
Coaches
Mader M.	Semlic P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
42', 0 - 1, Olakigbe M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Verinac A. 🟨,
52', 0 - 2, Baden Frederiksen N. ⚽, Olakigbe M. (A),
60', 0 - 3, Striednig M. ⚽, Goiginger T. (A),
66', 0 - 4, Baden Frederiksen N. (Penalty Awarded),
66', Bohm P. 🟨,
67', Gashi A. ↓, Jastremski L. ↑,
67', Afrifa L. ↓, Delaye S. ↑,
67', Verinac A. ↓, Benjamin P. ↑,
69', Oswald M. 🟨,
71', Baden Frederiksen N. ↓, Hinterseer L. ↑,
71', Satin M. ↓, Celic N. ↑,
74', Gmeiner F. ↓, Anilson ↑,
78', Goiginger T. ↓, Gschosser R. ↑,
78', Balic H. ↓, Bedianashvili G. ↑,
86', Pertlwieser N. ↓, Voisine R. ↑,
87', Murray D. ↓, Jaunegg D. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Austria Lustenau won 1.

Austria Lustenau has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Swarovski Tirol's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Austria Lustenau may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Austria Lustenau: Schierl D. (Red Card)

There will not play in Swarovski Tirol: Butler Q. (Knee Injury) Sabitzer T. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Austria Lustenau won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 30:35. (average 1.5:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Austria Lustenau won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 18:24. (average 1.6:2.2).

Outrights of Austrian Bundesliga for now

A. Lustenau: 0.44% Tirol: 0.44%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Tirol	7	2	2	3	9:12	-3	8
8	A. Lustenau	7	2	2	3	8:11	-3	8

Last Results with these Odds

Swarovski Tirol - the odds 2.78 are the expected chance of winning is 34.04%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Austria Lustenau
Austrian Bundesliga
22.08.26	Sturm Graz - Austria Lustenau	1:1 ✺
15.08.26	Austria Lustenau - Wolfsberger	2:1 ✺
08.08.26	Grazer AK - Austria Lustenau	2:1 ✺
02.08.26	Austria Lustenau - Ried	1:1 ✺
Austrian OFB Cup
25.07.26	Kremser - Austria Lustenau	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.6 TWLTW
- WSG Swarovski Tirol
Austrian Bundesliga
16.08.26	Swarovski Tirol - Red Bull Salzburg	0:3 ✺
07.08.26	Rheindorf Altach - Swarovski Tirol	3:1 ✺
01.08.26	Swarovski Tirol - Sturm Graz	1:1 ✺
Austrian OFB Cup
24.07.26	Wieselburg - Swarovski Tirol	0:6 ✺
Club Friendly
17.07.26	Hertha Berlin - Swarovski Tirol	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
31.01.26	Austria Lustenau - Swarovski Tirol	0:6
27.06.25	Swarovski Tirol - Austria Lustenau	2:2
Austrian Bundesliga
27.04.24	Swarovski Tirol - Austria Lustenau	0:0
30.03.24	Austria Lustenau - Swarovski Tirol	1:2
11.02.24	Swarovski Tirol - Austria Lustenau	0:2
17.09.23	Austria Lustenau - Swarovski Tirol	2:3
20.05.23	Austria Lustenau - Swarovski Tirol	2:4

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