Match Info

Date: 18 August 2022, Thursday

Location: Generali Arena (Vienna)

Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Austria Wien		Fenerbahçe

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.6	1.9
	3.7	3.6	1.95
	3.85	3.6	1.95
	3.9	3.6	1.9
	3.83	3.58	1.98
	3.9	3.4	1.95
	3.92	3.72	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.81 ↑ (2.8)	3.59 ↑ (3.4)	1.92 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Austria Wien
24.7%

Draw
26.3%

Fenerbahçe
49%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34%

28%

38%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

29.2%

39.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Austria Wien has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Austria Wien's form might have worsened.

Fenerbahçe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Fenerbahçe's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Austria Wien than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Austria Wien, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (-9.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Fenerbahçe, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.4%	11.4%	77.1%

Austria Wien - Fenerbahçe Predictions

Users Predictions: 105 users predict this event. Austria will win (votes: 12 - 11.4%). Fenerbahçe will win (votes: 81 - 77.1%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 11.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fenerbahçe: 69.1% – 85.1%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

1st leg.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Fenerbahçe could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Fenerbahçe will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Austria Wien
Austrian Bundesliga
13.08.22	Austria Wien - Swarovski Tirol	2:1 ✺
07.08.22	Rheindorf Altach - Austria Wien	3:2 ✺
31.07.22	Austria Wien - LASK Linz	1:1 ✺
22.07.22	Red Bull Salzburg - Austria Wien	3:0 ✺
Austrian OFB Cup
16.07.22	Wels - Austria Wien	0:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLTLW
- Fenerbahçe
Turkish Super League
15.08.22	Kasımpaşa - Fenerbahçe	0:6 ✺
UEFA Europa League
11.08.22	Slovácko - Fenerbahçe	1:1 ✺
Turkish Super League
08.08.22	Fenerbahçe - Umraniyespor	3:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
04.08.22	Fenerbahçe - Slovácko	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
27.07.22	Fenerbahçe - Dynamo Kyiv	1:2 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WTTWL

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