Match Info

SPAIN: SEGUNDA RFEF - GROUP 5 - ROUND 5

Date: 1 October 2023, Sunday


	Badajoz		UD San Fernando

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.2	3.8
	1.87	3.3	4.2	Watch
	1.78	3.4	4.63
	1.73	3.3	4.55
	1.88	3.25	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↓ (2.7)	3.29 ↑ (3)	4.21 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Badajoz
50.4%

Draw
27.8%

UD San Fernando
21.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.6%

30.2%

36.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.4%

30.9%

35.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Badajoz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Badajoz's performance.

UD San Fernando has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and UD San Fernando might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Badajoz than the current prediction. (-16%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Badajoz that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for UD San Fernando than the current prediction. (+13.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that UD San Fernando could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Badajoz - UD San Fernando Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Badajoz won 1.

Badajoz has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches San Fernando is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Badajoz could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Badajoz is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Badajoz won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 9-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Badajoz won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Badajoz
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
23.09.23	Illescas - Badajoz	0:0 ✺
17.09.23	Badajoz - CD Guadalajara	1:2 ✺
10.09.23	Atlético Paso - Badajoz	1:0 ✺
02.09.23	Badajoz - Unión Adarve	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
19.08.23	Cacereño - Badajoz	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 TLLLL
- UD San Fernando
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
24.09.23	CD Guadalajara - UD San Fernando	1:3 ✺
17.09.23	UD San Fernando - Unión Adarve	1:1 ✺
10.09.23	San Sebastian Reyes - UD San Fernando	2:3 ✺
03.09.23	UD San Fernando - Mensajero	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
10.08.23	Tamaraceite - UD San Fernando	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.6 WTWTW

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