Match Info

Carioca U20 - Taca Guanabara - Round 9

Date: 2 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished


	Bangu U20		Nova Iguaçu U20

	1	X	2
	1.80	3.25	3.80
	1.88	3.2	3.65
	1.79	3.39	3.85
	1.8	3.47	4.01	Watch
	1.82	3.1	3.8
	1.83	3.9	4.09
	1.91	3.2	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (2.06)	3.36 ↑ (3)	3.81 ↑ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bangu U20
49.4%

Draw
26.9%

Nova Iguaçu U20
23.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.9%

29.5%

27.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

26.6%

30.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bangu U20 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bangu U20's performance.

Nova Iguaçu U20 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bangu U20 than the current prediction. (-10.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bangu U20 that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nova Iguaçu U20 than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nova Iguaçu U20 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Bangu U20 - Nova Iguaçu U20 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', 1 - 0, ⚽,
90+1', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

An exciting matchup between two close rivals in the standings (ranked 8th in the Promotion ~ Carioca U20 (Taca Guanabara ~ PlayoffsQuarter~finals) and 10th).

In recent outings, Bangu U20 has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Nova Iguaçu U20 has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Bangu U20 holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Bangu U20 has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 2:2 (averaging 1:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Bangu U20 against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 1:2 goals.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bangu U20
Brazilian Carioca U20
26.09.26	Portuguesa RJ U20 - Bangu U20	0:3 ✺
19.09.26	Bangu U20 - Maricá U20	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Vasco da Gama U20 - Bangu U20	3:0 ✺
04.09.26	Bangu U20 - Flamengo RJ U20	0:3 ✺
29.08.26	Fluminense U20 - Bangu U20	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWLLL
- Nova Iguaçu U20
Brazilian Carioca U20
27.09.26	Nova Iguaçu U20 - Madureira U20	2:2 ✺
20.09.26	Boavista SC U20 - Nova Iguaçu U20	3:2 ✺
12.09.26	Sampaio Corrêa FE U20 - Nova Iguaçu U20	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Nova Iguaçu U20 - Portuguesa RJ U20	0:0 ✺
29.08.26	Maricá U20 - Nova Iguaçu U20	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Carioca U20
26.09.25	Nova Iguaçu U20 - Bangu U20	0:1
05.08.24	Bangu U20 - Nova Iguaçu U20	1:2

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nova Iguaçu U20
Brazilian Carioca U20
30.10.26	Fluminense U20 - Nova Iguaçu U20	✺

Bangu U20 - Nova Iguaçu U20