Match Info

Carioca U20 - Taca Guanabara - Round 11

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday


	Fluminense U20		Nova Iguaçu U20

	1	X	2
	1.3	4.75	7.9
	1.29	4.74	8.46
	1.41	3.95	7.88	Watch
	1.31	4.6	8.5
	1.75	3.25	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.77)	4.26 ↑ (3.33)	7.37 ↑ (4.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fluminense U20
65.6%

Draw
21.8%

Nova Iguaçu U20
12.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.2%

27.3%

21.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.1%

26.3%

20.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fluminense U20 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fluminense U20's performance.

Nova Iguaçu U20 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nova Iguaçu U20 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fluminense U20 than the current prediction. (-12.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fluminense U20 that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nova Iguaçu U20 than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nova Iguaçu U20 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Fluminense U20 - Nova Iguaçu U20 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
79', 1 - 0, ⚽,
90+4', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Carioca U20 (Taca Guanabara ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 11).

Fluminense U20 is Qualified for Carioca U20 (Taca Guanabara ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)

Fluminense U20 is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Nova Iguaçu U20 is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Nova Iguaçu U20 may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Fluminense U20 is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Fluminense U20 won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Fluminense U20 won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fluminense U20
Brazilian Carioca U20
04.10.25	Bangu U20 - Fluminense U20	0:2 ✺
27.09.25	Fluminense U20 - Maricá U20	1:0 ✺
21.09.25	Portuguesa RJ U20 - Fluminense U20	1:1 ✺
13.09.25	Fluminense U20 - Volta Redonda U20	0:1 ✺
06.09.25	Madureira U20 - Fluminense U20	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWTLW
- Nova Iguaçu U20
Brazilian Carioca U20
04.10.25	Sampaio Corrêa FE U20 - Nova Iguaçu U20	2:0 ✺
26.09.25	Nova Iguaçu U20 - Bangu U20	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Maricá U20 - Nova Iguaçu U20	4:1 ✺
17.09.25	Flamengo RJ U20 - Nova Iguaçu U20	1:0 ✺
12.09.25	Nova Iguaçu U20 - Portuguesa RJ U20	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa Rio U20
19.04.25	Nova Iguaçu U20 - Fluminense U20	1:1
Brazilian Carioca U20
12.06.24	Fluminense U20 - Nova Iguaçu U20	3:0

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