Match Info

Catarinense - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz (Itajaí)


	Barra Santa Catarina		Santa Catarina

	1	X	2
	1.94	3.05	4.25
	4.54	3.34	1.80	Watch
	1.91	3.1	3.75
	1.92	2.92	4.25
	1.88	3	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↑ (1.98)	3.08 ↓ (3.09)	3.65 ↓ (3.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barra Santa Catarina
40.7%

Draw
32.2%

Santa Catarina
27.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

29.4%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.3%

30.8%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barra Santa Catarina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Barra Santa Catarina's form might have worsened.

Santa Catarina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barra Santa Catarina than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Barra Santa Catarina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Catarina than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Barra Santa Catarina - Santa Catarina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ewerton (G) 7. Cleo Silva 6. Da Rocha 10. Elvinho 2. Everton Alemao 11. Geovany Soares 8. Henrique Freitas 3. Jean Pierre (C) 9. Renan Bernabe 5. Tete 4. Vava	1. Marcos (G) 29. Adriel 7. Bruninho 8. Cleberson 6. Coruja 16. Galdino 2. Juninho 15. Kaue Oliveira 10. Mendes 13. Renan 25. Renan Nunes
Substitutes
15. Dionathan 12. Fabian Volpi (G) 13. Fabio 23. Gabriel Silva 24. Lucas Vargas 21. Marcelinho 18. Nicolas 16. Pablo 17. Pericles 19. Saymon 14. Vitao 20. Warley	21. Beto 18. Brener 5. Bruno Negueba 3. DVD 27. Gui Nascimento 17. Henrique Lordelo 19. Hyan 12. Iago Henrique 30. Luan 14. Piaui 23. Vinicius Machado (G) 9. Yhago

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', 0 - 1, Bruninho ⚽,
36', Henrique Freitas 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 1, Everton Alemao ⚽,
45+2', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Adriel 🟨,
57', 🟨,
60', Bruninho ↓, Luan ↑,
60', Galdino ↓, Henrique Lordelo ↑,
62', Vava ↓, Fabio ↑,
62', Cleo Silva ↓, Gabriel Silva ↑,
70', Renan Nunes ↓, Brener ↑,
70', Renan Bernabe ↓, Vitao ↑,
71', Renan ↓, Piaui ↑,
79', Elvinho ↓, Pablo ↑,
85', Cleberson 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Barra has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Santa Catarina is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Barra is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Barra won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Including home match between the teams, Barra won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barra Santa Catarina
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
25.01.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Concórdia	5:1 ✺
22.01.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Barra Santa Catarina	0:1 ✺
17.01.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Brusque	0:1 ✺
14.01.26	Camboriú - Barra Santa Catarina	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	Barra Santa Catarina - Joinville	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WWLLW
- Santa Catarina FC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
25.01.26	Santa Catarina - Avaí	3:1 ✺
21.01.26	Brusque - Santa Catarina	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Santa Catarina - Joinville	3:1 ✺
15.01.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Santa Catarina	0:1 ✺
11.01.26	Concórdia - Santa Catarina	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.3 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
23.01.25	Barra Santa Catarina - Santa Catarina	2:2

Barra Santa Catarina - Santa Catarina: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide