The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Hercílio Luz 48.2%
Draw 28.3%
Barra Santa Catarina 23.6%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
40%
25.6%
34.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
41.6%
24.6%
33.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Hercílio Luz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hercílio Luz's performance.
Barra Santa Catarina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.8%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Barra Santa Catarina might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hercílio Luz than the current prediction. (-6.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hercílio Luz that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barra Santa Catarina than the current prediction. (+9.5%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Barra Santa Catarina could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Hercílio Luz - Barra Santa Catarina Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, ⚽,
45+3', 2 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
Preview
A clash between a stable mid-table side and a team seeking crucial survival points (ranked 4th in the Promotion - Copa Santa Catarina Playoffs - Semi - finals and 7th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hercílio Luz won 1.
Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.
In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.
In the last 8 head-to-head meetings, Hercílio Luz has recorded 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 8:6 (averaging 1:0.8 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Hercílio Luz against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 5:1 goals (averaging 1.3:0.3 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
2
Hercilio Luz ✔
7
4
1
2
13:9
4
13
7
Barra FC
7
1
4
2
13:13
0
7
Last Results with these Odds
Barra Santa Catarina - the odds 2.59 are the expected chance of winning is 34.42%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.
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