Match Info

ENGLAND: EFL Trophy

Date: 12 November 2024, Tuesday

Location: Holker Street (Barrow in Furness)

Referee: Woods M. (Eng)


	Barrow		Aston Villa U21

	1	X	2
	1.75	4.1	3.8
	1.68	3.8	3.8
	1.78	4	3.75
	1.78	4.29	3.7
	1.74	4.17	4	Watch
	1.7	3.9	3.75
	1.72	4.05	4.04
	1.78	4	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (2.17)	4.04 ↑ (3.74)	3.82 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barrow
53%

Draw
22.9%

Aston Villa U21
24.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

24.5%

33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

23.4%

31.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barrow has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Barrow's performance.

Aston Villa U21 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Aston Villa U21 might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barrow than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Barrow that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa U21 than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Aston Villa U21 could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.4%	5.9%	11.8%

Barrow - Aston Villa U21 Predictions

Users Predictions: Barrow will win (14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.29% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Farman P. (G) 24. Feely R. 42. Vassell T. 6. Canavan N. (C) 29. Tiensia J. 15. Gotts R. 4. Campbell D. 23. Mahoney C. 25. Kirk C. 17. Kouyate K. 19. Telford D.	52. Proctor S. (G) 45. Rowe T. 63. Smith K. 53. Amundsen-Day E. 66. Patterson T. 62. Alcock T. (C) 75. Simpson E. 70. Pavey C. 56. Jimoh J. 47. Taylor K. 77. Moore K.
Substitutes
9. Dallas A. 2. Eccleston N. 30. Jackson B. 11. Newby E. 21. Stanway W. (G) 14. Stokes Ch. 38. Weston C.	90. Burgess W. 81. Fortes R. 85. Jenner M. 73. Katsukunya T. 65. Lewis S. (G) 49. Lutz C. 87. Mulley T.
Coaches
Clemence S.	Gombau J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Telford D. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Telford D. ↓, Dallas A. ↑,
46', Simpson E. ↓, Mulley T. ↑,
47', Pavey C. 🟨,
62', Pavey C. ↓, Lutz C. ↑,
62', Smith K. ↓, Katsukunya T. ↑,
67', 2 - 0, Vassell T. ⚽, Mahoney C. (A),
74', 3 - 0, Dallas A. ⚽,
74', Campbell D. ↓, Weston C. ↑,
75', Mahoney C. ↓, Eccleston N. ↑,
78', Taylor K. ↓, Jenner M. ↑,
78', Moore K. ↓, Fortes R. ↑,
83', Proctor S. ↓, Lewis S. ↑,

Preview

Aston Villa U21 is Qualified for EFL Trophy (Play Offs )

One and the other team are in an unacceptable form.

Aston Villa U21 could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Aston Villa U21 have a series of guest games.

In this match Barrow is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barrow
English League Two
09.11.24	Barrow - Colchester United	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
02.11.24	Barrow - Doncaster Rovers	0:1 ✺
English League Two
26.10.24	Bromley - Barrow	1:1 ✺
22.10.24	Barrow - Notts County	1:1 ✺
19.10.24	Accrington Stanley - Barrow	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 TLTTL
- Aston Villa U21
English Premier League 2
01.11.24	Leicester City U21 - Aston Villa U21	3:1 ✺
25.10.24	Middlesbrough U21 - Aston Villa U21	4:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
08.10.24	Bolton Wanderers - Aston Villa U21	1:2 penalties ✺
English Premier League 2
05.10.24	Aston Villa U21 - Newcastle United U21	2:3 ✺
27.09.24	Manchester City U21 - Aston Villa U21	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LLWLL

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